Friday, May 31, 2002
VENEZUELA
"The 48-hour coup": The July World Press Review contains a reprint of an item from The Guardian detailing the back-and-forth within the Venezuelan military that led to the ouster and return of Hugo Chávez.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Peace talks with ELN off: The government has cut off peace talks with Colombia's second communist guerilla group the National Liberation Army (ELN), reports El Tiempo."A peace process without results and without the will of one of the parties...is not viable," concluded (Colombian President Andrés) Pastrana. "Un proceso de paz sin resultados y sin la voluntad de una de las
partes (...) no es viable", finalizó Pastrana. The Colombian government has been negotiating with the ELN in Cuba, with Cuban mediation. Colombia's negotiator, Camilo Gómez, said the breakdown occurred because "the ELN would not accept any of the proposals of the government" ("el Eln no aceptó ninguna de las propuestas del Gobierno"), including settling down in specific zones, in order to facilitate international verification.The ELN decided that it was not able to give up what they call 'military mobility,'" a subject that totally obstructs the truce, because, "one must leave military mobility and commence political mobility," indicated the functionary (Gómez). “El Eln consideró que no podía perder lo que ellos llaman ‘movilidad militar’”, asunto que entorpece totalmente la tregua, porque “uno tiene que dejar la movilidad militar y entrar en la movilidad política”, aseguró el funcionario. In addition, reports El Espectador, the ELN wanted $40 million to support 10,000 guerillas during the truce. No surprise here. They are communists, after all.
Here's is the ELN's homepage.
. . .
ELECTIONS
Voter turnout declining:This week's headlines about the sweeping election victory of Colombia's president-elect, Alvaro Uribe, overshadowed a little-noticed but troubling fact: It confirmed a growing Latin American trend toward voter apathy. Or did it? The Miami Herald's columnist Andres Oppenheimer considers the question.
. . .
U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA
Leading by example: In today's "Americas" column in The Wall Street Journal (sorry, no link), Santiago Millan, the former chief Latin America economist for HSBC, warns of a dangerous turn toward protectionism, populism and economic nationalism in Latin America. Encouraging the new direction, he says, is the U.S., whose own protectionist policies justify, excuse and encourage Latin opponents of trade, globalization and economic freedom. This wouldn't be the first time the U.S. made this mistake, Millan says: In 1930 the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, raising taxes on imported goods, in an attempt to revitalize domestic industry by eliminating foreign competition. In response, countries all over the world did the same and world trade collapsed.In 1930 and the year following, 12 Latin American countries changed governments, 10 by military coup. Some of the governments were replaced by left-wing regimes, while others fell to the right. But there was one thing in common: Latin America's new leadership was nationalist and populist. If this kind of destruction can't occur so easily today by military coups (Venezuela, perhaps, will be an exception), it can still occur by the ballot box. A populist was elected in Venezuela in 1998; a self-described socialist is way ahead in Brazilian presidential polls; Argentina's next elections--early or not--are likely to strengthen the anti-market left.More than a half a century of misguided policies has created economies dramatically unprepared to compete in today's global economy. Latin America's exports have little value-added and are among the world's smallest...with respect to the size of the economies...Only Chile, which began unilaterally opening its own markets in the 1970s, and continues today, has a robust export market and steady prospects for growth. Latin America's economic malaise is only bad news for the U.S. and the world. Prosperity south of the border would greatly expand markets for U.S. products and allow for the U.S. economy to add value where it is most efficient, increasing the wealfare of all... In the U.S., as in the rest of the world, the recent economic downturn has heightened calls for protection from sectors of the economy that are far from competitive... Further moves toward protectionism in the U.S. only risk more backlash from its neighbors and inspire anti-American sentiment. The Bush administration can help prevent another era of economic nationalism in this hemisphere and the world with leadership by example.... Otherwise, it's deja vu all over again.
. . .
Thursday, May 30, 2002
ARGENTINA
Economic subversion law repealed: Last week the National Assembly refused to repeal the law of economic subversion, this week the Senate reversed that decision, reports La Nacion. Passed while the military was fighting urban guerillas in the 1970s, this law has been used against bankers and businessmen accused of such things as facilitating the movement of capital off-shore. Repeal is a key demand of the IMF.In an agonizing vote, and after several hours of tension and uncertainty, the Senate approved this afternoon the repeal of the law of economic subversion, that was demanded on the insistence of the IMF and the government of Eduardo Duhalde.
The Justicialist (Peronist) Party harvested 34 votes, while the opposition totalled 34 votes consisting of the Radicals, provincial parties, 8 PJ dissidents and one a provincial party, which obliged the President of the Senate Juan Carlos Maqueda to break the tie.
The fate of the voting stayed definitively sealed in favor of the government thanks to what the Radical senator for Río Negro Amanda Isidori, announced that she would withdraw from the arena in order to comply with a request of her governor, Pablo Verani. En una agónica votación, y después de varias horas de mucha tensión e incertidumbre, el Senado aprobó esta tarde la derogación de la ley de subversión económica, que reclamaba con insistencia el FMI y el gobierno de Eduardo Duhalde.
El justicialismo cosechó 34 sufragios, mientras que la oposición sumó 34 votos conformados por el radicalismo, partidos provinciales, 8 disidentes del PJ y uno de un partido provincial, lo cual obligó a desempatar al presidente del Senado Juan Carlos Maqueda.
La suerte de la votación quedó definitivamente sellada a favor del oficialismo gracias a que la senadora radical por Río Negro Amanda Isidori, anunció que se retiraría del recinto para cumplir con un pedido de su gobernador, Pablo Verani. This is a big victory for Duhalde, but still a tactical one. Defeat meant disaster, with resignation following quickly. Still, Duhalde has more to do before an agreement with the IMF can be signed, bringing the promise of aid. Then he faces his biggest problem: what to do when IMF aid causes little or no immediate improvement. After putting so much effort and doing so much damage to get aid, the letdown will be enormous.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Agricultural prospects: Argentina's economic and financial turmoil has not, and will not, be good for agriculture, says AgReportEnglish.According to the report presented by Reinaldo Muñoz, an expert with Argentine agricultural organization INTA--Department of Social and Economic Studies, located in the city of Pergamino, "The Argentine role in the exportation market will be threatened because of a simple fact: lower production implicates lower exportations." As it seems, the devaluation of the local currency (the Argentine peso) and its announced reactivating power for exportations, could not counteract the negative effects of the current economic crisis, and producers will feel the consequences when evaluating what and when to sow. Meanwhile, USDA technicians also considered a depressed scenario and projected that the national production of wheat and corn will reach 16.5 and 11 million tons, respectively. If these estimates are reached, the lack of liquidity of national economy will not be reverted. This year, the main source of income for Argentina will be centered on the dollars obtained from sales to foreign countries. If exportations fall, the consequences will be very harsh for the national economy in general, not only for agricultural producers.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Military ferment: Economic troubles aren't the only problems Hugo Chávez faces. The Venezuelan military remains divided, discontented and capable of trying to overthrow him, according to an extended analysis in the Financial Times. One of the major causes of continued dissention, paradoxically, is Chávez's effort to ensure loyalty by promoting loyalists.Army generals and navy vice-admirals deemed to be anti-Chávez or "institutional" have been replaced by colonels and navy captains seen as loyalists - a process that led to two reported incidents of insubordination this month. Tensions could explode in July, analysts fear, when annual promotions are scheduled.
"Chávez has to tread very lightly. He might gain a better position in the short term, but in the longer term foment resentment that could lead to his downfall," says Colonel Joe Nuñez, a professor of national security and strategy at the US Army War College.
Military sources say the purge is shifting the balance of sentiment among middle-ranking officers against discredited generals that remain in the reshuffled military high command. Several quick points:
* Among those predicting an early second coup, John Sweeney of Stratfor, the private intelligence provider, who says he has seen proof the snipers who fired on demonstrators on April 11 were Chávez loyalists.
* Analysts regularly point to Chile, in 1973, as precedent in suggesting that a follow-up coup can succeed after an initial coup fails.
* A follow-up coup, if there is one, would likely be more violent.
* A successful anti-Chávez coup might be in the best interest of...Chávez. Why? Others, not he, would have to deal with the economic mess he made. Others would have to cope with Bolivarian Circles. He could look forward to a triumphant return some day. Think Peron.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Economic adjustment plan coming: El Universal reports that the government is reviewing a new economic plan.The government wants to stabilize its finances in order to cover a deficit of around $7 or $8 billion; moreover, to adopt measures to reactivate the economy that fall 4.2 per cent during the first quarter of the year. El Gobierno deberá equilibrar sus finanzas para cubrir un déficit que se ubica entre 7 y 8 millardos de dólares; además, espera adoptar medidas para reactivar la economía que cayó 4,2 por ciento durante el primer trimestre del año. Government ministers involved in developing the plan spoke on the plan, in a very conciliatory manner, as quoted in a second article in El Universal:
Felipe Pérez, planning minister: We have been working in a coordinated manner. "There is room for consensus because there are known theories and practical realities.
"The doctrine this government proclaims is a doctrine that has been applied with success in the European countries during the post-war and explains the economic miracle of South East Asia."
"We are in a very difficult situation and the only way out is to obtain the support of all Venezuelans."
"The Middle class and the businessmen need to play a very important role in the construction of what we want to make. The private sector that is open to debate this proposal from here on, we will be able to arrive at a consensus. We are going to make an appeal to their understanding and good sense." Felipe Pérez, ministro de planificación: 'Hemos estados trabajando de manera conjunta. Hay espacio para un consenso porque hay conocimientos teóricos y realidades prácticas"
'La doctrina que pregona este gobierno es una doctrina que ha sido aplicada con éxito en los países europeos después de la postguerra y explica el milagro de la economía del sudeste asiático'
'Estamos en una situación muy difícil y la única forma de salir es lograr todas la voluntades de los venezolanos' 'La clase media y los empresarios deben jugar un papel muy importante en la construcción de lo que queremos hacer. El sector privado que se abra el debate a partir de esta propuesta y podamos llegar a un consenso. Venimos a hacer un llamado a la comprensión y a la sensatez'. This almost pleading discourse stands in stark contrast with Hugo Chávez's usual bullying. This government is in economic trouble, and at least some officials know it. Still, few in the middle class and business community are likely to believe that Felipe Pérez, not Hugo Chávez, expresses the nature soul of this government.
One minister, in a comment, hit on an important, underlying attitudinal problem:Tobías Nóbrega, finance minister: "In Venezuela always we have lived with the illusion that oil revenues will always save our life." Tobías Nóbrega, ministro de finanzas: "En Venezuela siempre hemos vivido bajo la ilusión de que el ingreso petrolero siempre nos salva la vida". Bloomberg.com reports that the plan will include increasing the value-added tax from 14.5 to 15.5 per cent and a financial transaction tax from .75 per cent to 1 per cent.
The proposed economic adjustment program is not a solution to Venezuela's economic problems. It could help the country cope, while problems are dealt with in a more fundamental way. This is not a probable outcome, given Hugo Chávez's stated belief that free-market capitalism ("neo-liberalism") is "the road to hell" (El Sur) .
. . .
VENEZUELA
Cheating: Venezuela is exceeding its OPEC production target, reports Bloomberg.com"Traders suspect that President Chavez is trying to bolster oil revenues to underpin his fragile hold on the country,'' said Lawrence Eagles, an analyst at GNI Ltd. Venezuela increased shipments by 200,000 barrels a day in May, to 2.68 million barrels. This is 7.3 percent more than its OPEC target, Bloomberg reports, citing Conrad Gerber of PetroLogistics Ltd., which tracks oil shipments. Ali Rodriguez, the head of Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), Venezuela's state oil company, denied that the country is breaking its quota.
Meanwhile, El Nacional reports that Cuba has not been receiving Venezuelan oil since about the time of the temporary ouster of Hugo Chávez. The Cuban government denies shipments were halted for non-payment. Cuba is supposed to buy Venezuelan oil at market rates but with concessionary terms, under a contract signed in October 2000.
. . .
CUBA
Bush: "Viva Cuba Libre": Columnist Jeff Jacoby reviews George W. Bush's speech on the anniversary of Cuban independence, and its critics, in the Boston Globe. He finds Bush inspiring, his critics shallow and mercenary.President Bush spoke out in support of a nation suffering under tyranny. He declared that its people are entitled to liberty, democracy, and dignity, and he condemned the dictator ''who jails and tortures and exiles his political opponents.'' He called for free elections and free speech. And he promised that the United States would continue to press this odious regime to ''finally begin respecting the human rights of its people.'' In response,Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota sneered that the president's stand was ''driven by politics, not policy.'' USA Today brushed it off as ''an anachronistic failure'' and even pooh-poohed Bush's proposal to direct more philanthropic and educational aid to Cuban citizens. Over at the Council on Foreign Relations, a font of conventional wisdom, Walter Russell Mead poured scorn on a ''do-nothing speech'' that was ''not ... very convincing or effective.'' So, what's going on? Jacoby thinks money: He recalls a congressional Cuba Working Group press conference just before Bush's speech:Oh, there was a passing reference now and then to democracy or human rights, but on the whole the Cuba Working Group seemed to get passionate only when the topic turned to the quantities of dried beans and chicken legs that Cuba is supposedly keen to import. So, Jacoby questioned Rep. Jim McGovern, one of its members from Massachusetts, who said promotion of democracy and human rights was fundamental to the group.Perhaps so. But while he and his colleagues persist in talking about the embargo, Bush is reminding the world that the real issue is freedom. The polestar of his Cuba policy is liberty, not chicken legs. When the Cuban people are free at last, they will not forget his steadfastness. The text of Bush's speech is available from the White House website.
The members of the Cuba Working Group are:Democrats
William Delahunt - MA,
Tim Roemer - IN,
Neil Abercrombie - HI,
Howard Berman - CA,
Marion Berry - AR,
William Clay - MO,
Peter DeFazio - OR,
Sam Farr - CA,
Nick Lampson - TX,
Stephen Lynch - MA,
Jim McGovern - MA,
Collin Peterson - MN,
Charles Rangel - NY,
Vic Snyder - AR,
Hilda Solis - CA,
Mike Thompson - CA,
Charlie Stenholm - TX,
Mike Ross - AR,
Cal Dooley - CA,
John Tanner - TN;
Republicans
George Nethercutt- WA,
Jo Ann Emerson - MO,
Jeff Flake - AZ,
John Boozman - AR,
Kevin Brady - TX,
Ray LaHood - IL,
Jim Leach - IA,
Jerry Moran - KS,
Tom Osborne - NE,
Butch Otter - ID,
Ron Paul - TX,
Jim Ramstad - MN,
Dennis Rehberg - MT,
Chris Shays - CT,
Nick Smith - MI,
John Thune - SD,
Wally Herger - CA,
Sam Graves - MO,
Tim Johnson - IL,
John Shimkus - IL.
. . .
Wednesday, May 29, 2002
MEXICO
Market-oriented pension reform: Mexico seems likely to approve a major pension intended to improve participants' returns and to spread an investment culture. The reforms, which are about to be voted on by Mexico's lower house and will be considered by the Senate in July, are thoroughly reviewed in The Financial Times.Understanding of pensions is still low. Many savers were burnt by the last financial crisis and do not trust providers. "More than 90 per cent of people don't know how much they are paying or what they are getting in interest," said Gerardo Serrador, head of marketing for Banco Santander Mexicano, one of the most successful Afores (approved pension plans). "It's a problem of culture. Right now, people think that this is money they will never see again." Now, regulators want to move Afores towards the investment freedom enjoyed by 401(k) pension plans in the US, which can invest in an almost unfettered range of securities, but will continue to move slowly. Thus the bar on Afores investing in equities will stay in place, for now. Aggressive rules to protect the consumer will be strengthened. Unlike in the US, where 401(k) providers make their pitch to corporate treasurers and human resources departments, who then allow one provider to offer pensions to all their employees, Mexico requires pension plans to market direct to employees. Strong, pension systems with broad participation serve two important purposes in countries like Mexico that are approaching membership in the first world. First, they stabilize politics; people with ownership through pension systems are less likely to respond favorably to the politics of confiscation and redistribution. Second, they are a necessary precondition for population stabilization; the pension instead of children provide for old age.
Given the success of Mexico and Chile (see post just below), Latin American governments should be sending delegation after delegation to learn how its done. Instead, major countries remain in thrall to a dead fascist (Argentina), a bearded thug (Venezuela; Cuba knows better) and a member of the generation of '68, who's learned nothing since (Brazil), or are held hostage by communist--amazingly, people still believe in it--guerillas (Colombia). A lot of the problem stems from Europe and the United States, where the chattering classes still peddle populist nostrums and from where Sandalistas still trek in to support the worst political elements and governmental and non-governmental organizations alike excuse abject failure and stupid brutality--providing they are done by the left.
. . .
CHILE
Chilean Champion: This week's Latin Business Chronicle reviews South America's success story.Amidst political and economic uncertainty in Latin America, Chile continues to be a Latin American business superstar. "Its strength and attractiveness lie not in its size (population of 15 million people), but in the energy and professionalism of its entrepreneurs, the transparency of its regulation, and the predictability of its decision-makers," the U.S. Department of Commerce says in its 2002 country report on Chile. The Chronicle finds little about Chile with which to quarrel, except the country's high marginal income tax rate. Otherwise, Chile's economy, the sixth-largest in Latin America, grew an annual average of 5.7 percent in the ten-year period 1992-2001. This year, GDP is expected to grow by 3 percent and twice that next year, predicts the International Monetary Fund.
"Market-led reforms over 25 years and an increasingly diversified economy with strong ties to buyers and suppliers in the Americas, Europe and Asia have given Chile a wide range of options for further growth," the U.S. Commerce Department says in its report. "Prudent economic policy-making has secured long-term stability unknown elsewhere in Latin America." Much needed, however, according to the Chronicle is a free trade agreement with the United States, like that Chile just signed with the European Union. The publication indicates that the fault for failure to achieve such an agreement--promised by President Bill Clinton in 1994--lies squarely with the United States.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Denials: Defense Minister Lucas Rincón Romero has denied that Chávez supporters, led by former police intelligence official Eliézer Otaiza, shot into protesting crowds during April 11 anti-government demonstrations, reports El Universal. Rincón affirmed that these officials were not found in the country during the events of April 11. It is the answer that Otaiza is giving to the television channels where these officials are tied to the activity that they were not found here, they were out of the country." Also he affirmed that proof exists that can clarify such an assertion.
For his part, Tarek William Saab (a leader of Chávez's party in the legislature) also spoke on the report of the U.S. firm Stratfor that related some members of the government with the snipers of April. The member of parliament said that he gives it no credibility because the author is a member of a private firm that, hypothetically, works for foreign intelligence organizations. "Rincón afirmó que estos oficiales no se encontraban en el país durante los sucesos del 11 A. ''Es una respuesta que está dando Otaiza en los canales de televisión donde se menciona a estos oficiales que están ligando a la actividad que se realizó el día 11 de abril, y resulta que estos oficiales no se encontraban aquí, ellos estaban en el exterior''. También aseguró que existen pruebas que pueden aclarar tal aseveración.
A su vez, Tarek William Saab se pronunció sobre el informe de la firma estadounidense Stratfor que relaciona a algunos miembros del Gobierno con los francotiradores de abril. El parlamentario dijo que no le da credibilidad porque incumbe a una empresa privada que, hipotéticamente, trabaja para organismos de inteligencia extranjeros. It is important to note that this story has not been picked up beyond El Universal and Bloomberg.com, including in the other papers in Caracas or neighboring Colombia. It is also important to note that Stratfor is a recognized private provider of global intelligence.
. . .
Tuesday, May 28, 2002
VENEZUELA
4/11 snipers Chávez allies: El Universal has a lengthy report on the report that the April 11 snipers were allies of President Hugo Chávez (see also post immediately below). Among other things, the paper names names: Sweeney (the Stratfor analyst making the charge) said to the emissary of Union Radio that the officials (shooters) are the major Adilán Díaz, the police inspector Rodríguez Orta, the major Suárez Chourio and the lieutenant colonel Alejandro Maya Silva.
The reporter said his confidence in his sources is 99.9 per cent. He was said to be investigating the possibility that other snipers were linked to Pérez Recao. "What are clearly identified are these men directed by Otaiza," said the emissary.
In accord with the information provided by the reporter, the proofs include tape recordings that reveal that the officials are shooting actively.
He assured that tape and documentary proofs exist. "The government has known of the existence of this operation since almost six weeks ago and has not wanted to respond and to bring it to light.
The reporter said that these officials are not institutional military, but "persons that were carried away by some political ideology and other reasons. It have this confirmed by five distinct sources, none of which are familiar with each other. I have direct knowledge that there exists a tape recorcing confirming it in all respects.
Sweeney assured that he has conversed "with security officials of the government who are directly familiar with these officials and have recognized the voices on the tape recordings, have trained with them. But I have not wanted to bring this to light publicly in order to protect the life of these persons. Their own government has wanted to conceal it," he explained.
Sweeney did not know if there some of these officers were linked with the Bolivarian Circles. "The truth is that no, I don't believe that this exists. Although evidently Otaiza recognized in a interview that when when he passed through the DISIP (political police) he used this body to recruit young national university students, something that is not a function of the DISIP."
For his part, Otaiza admitted that he is familiar with the officials named in the report, but accused Sweeney of working indirectly for the CIA. He said that "this enterprise (Stratfor), supposedly private, reproduced intelligence analysis after the 16th of April, has had two or three reports. The purpose of these is to wash the face of the American government."
To this defense of Otiaza's, Sweeney said that "Otiaza is a liar, ignorant and poorly informed. I have not seen proof that implicates the CIA and the government of the United States in the events. Although I recognize that the acts of some officials of the Department of State were imprudent and incompetent to issue declarations during these days, without knowing exactly what was occurring in Caracas." Sweeney dijo a la emisora Unión Radio que los funcionarios son el mayor Adilán Díaz, el comisario Rodríguez Orta, el mayor Suárez Chourio y el teniente coronel Alejandro Maya Silva.
El periodista dijo confiar en la veracidad de sus fuentes en un 99,9 por ciento. Dijo estar investigando la posibilidad de que otros francotiradores estuvieran ligados a Pérez Recao. "Los que están plenamente identificados son estos hombres manejados por Otaiza", dijo a la emisora.
De acuerdo a la información manejada por el periodista, las pruebas incluyen grabaciones donde se revela que los funcionarios estaban disparando activamente.
Aseguró que existen pruebas grabadas y documentos. "El Gobierno ha sabido de la existencia de esta operación desde hace casi seis semanas y no han querido responder y sacar a la luz pública".
El periodista dijo que estos funcionarios no son militares institucionales, sino "personas que se han dejado llevar por alguna ideología política y algunas otras razones. Tengo esto confirmado de cinco fuentes distintas, ninguna de las cuales se conocen entre sí. Tengo conocimiento directo de que sí existe una grabación al respecto confirmándolo".
Sweeney asegura haber conversado "con funcionarios de seguridad del Gobierno que conocen a estos funcionarios directamente y han reconocido las voces de las grabaciones, han entrenado con ellos. Pero no se ha querido sacar esto a la luz pública para proteger la vida de estas personas. El propio Gobierno lo ha querido esconder", explicó.
Sweeney desconoce si hay algún vínculo de estos funcionarios con los círculos bolivarianos. "La verdad que no, no creo que lo estén. Aunque evidentemente Otaiza reconoció en una entrevista que cuando pasó por la Disip utilizó ese cuerpo para reclutar a jóvenes de las universidades nacionales, cosa que no es función de la Disip".
Por su parte, Otaiza reconoció que conoce a los funcionarios indicados en el informe, pero acusó a Sweeney de trabajar indirectamente para la CIA. Dijo que "esa empresa, supuestamente privada, que reproduce análisis de inteligencia desde el 16 de abril, ha hecho dos o tres informes. El primero de ellos lo hizo tratando de lavarle la cara al gobierno americano".
A la defensa de Otaiza, Sweeney dijo que "Otaiza es un mentiroso, ignorante y mal informado. No he visto pruebas que comprometan a la CIA y al gobierno de los Estados Unidos en los hechos. Aunque sí reconozco que las acciones de algunos funcionarios del Departamento de Estado fueron imprudentes e incompetentes al emitir declaraciones durante esos días, sin saber bien lo que estaba aconteciendo en Caracas". Meanwhile, El Mundo reports that the official investigation is languishing for lack of money.The three delegates designated by the Ministerio Publico to supervise the investigation intended to explain the deaths and the violent events that occurred between the 11th and the 14th of April, approached the Minister of the Interior and Justice and the Fiscalía General (Attorney General), with the purpose of soliciting more resources for the officials that are investigating the assassinations that occurred between the Avenue Baralt and Puente LLaguno.
The commission, composed of the ex-director general of the Defensoría del Pueblo, Juan Navarrete, and the priests Juan Vives Suria and Ignacio Arrieta, have evidence that the officers of the División contra Homicidios del Cuerpo de Investigaciones Científicas Penales y Criminalísticas are working in reduced circumstances, without space to take declarations from the witnesses who appear.
The agents informed the delegates that they don't possess sufficient vehicles to perform their duties, nor the equipment needed to make rigorous ballistic tests. Equally, the lack of air conditioning in the laboratories has made the investigations difficult as a special microscope cannot be used. Los tres delegados que designó el Ministerio Público para supervisar las averiguaciones destinadas a esclarecer las muertes y los hechos de violencia ocurridos entre el 11 y el 14 de abril, acudirán al Ministerio del Interior y Justicia y a la Fiscalía General, con el propósito de solicitar mayores recursos a los funcionarios que investigan los asesinatos ocurridos entre la avenida Baralt y Puente Llaguno.
La comisión, integrada por el ex director general de la Defensoría del Pueblo, Juan Navarrete, y los sacerdotes Juan Vives Suria e Ignacio Arrieta, consta tó que los efectivos de la División contra Homicidios del Cuerpo de Investigaciones Científicas Penales y Criminalísticas trabajan en un sitio reducido, sin espacio para tomar las declaraciones a los testigos que acuden a diario a dicha sede.
Los agentes informaron a los delegados que no poseen vehículos suficientes para realizar las diligencias, ni los equipos necesarios para realizar las experticias balísticas de rigor. Igualmente, la falta de aire acondicionado en los laboratorios ha dificultado las investigaciones al no poderse utilizar un mi croscopio especial.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Chávez allies shot protestors: Bloomberg.com reports that it was allies of President Hugo Chávez who shot and killed protestors during demonstrations on April 11, leading to the short-lived ouster of Chávez. Bloomberg copies a Union Radio report, which cites an analyst with Stratfor.com (a pricey subscription required for most information).Five employees at the country's state security office confirmed the existence of a tape proving the men were pro-government military officers and police personnel coordinated by Eliezer Otaiza, the former head of Venezuela's intelligence-gathering police, John Sweeney, an analyst at the Austin, Texas-based company said in a radio interview.
"I've seen transcripts of the tape,'' Sweeney said. "The government has known of this operation for six weeks and has tried to hide it.' The government has supposedly been investigating the sniper shootings since the event. The opposition is unimpressed with the results.Otaiza said in a radio interview that "a sector'' of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency was behind the killings. Now, that is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Go it alone: Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and chairman of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors, believes Argentina doesn't need the IMF, he writes in an op-ed piece in today's Wall Street Journal (no link).Much of the press commentary and policy discussion assumes that Argentina desperately needs outside funding and that such fund would have a substantially favorable effect on the outlook for the Argentine economy. I disagree. I can see no way in which an IMF loan of $10 billion--the amount that is widely mooted--would help Argentina deal with its fundamental problems or its short-term crisis.
If there is no good economic reason for the IMF to lend money to Argentina, why is it so eager to do so? One reason is that Argentina has interest and principal payments of $4.9 billion that are due to the IMF this year. By withholding that amount from any gross loan that it now makes, the IMF could maintain the fiction that its borrowers do not default on their loans...Since lending just $5 billion to Argentina wouldmake this slight of hand obvious, the IMF wants to lend more. Putting the extra funds into Argentina's central-bank reserves would also make it easier for Argentina to repay the $4.2 billion that is due to the fund in 2003. Feldstein believes that the IMF's practice of contitioning aid on the adoption of certain policies damages Argentina, as well. He doesn't believe the IMF recommendations always make sense. And even when they do, he says, conditioning IMF aide on agreeing with IMF conditions weakens the public's confidence in their own government and the public's support for whatever measures are taken. It would be much better, he says, for Argentines to work things out for themselves.
. . .
COLOMBIA
What Uribe is up to: El Tiempo explains why Álvaro Uribe Vélez issued a surprise call for UN-mediated negotiation with the FARC.The country, accustomed to the strength of the president elect against the guerillas, anticipated hearing him, as president elect, speaking of a strong hand against them.
But this same Sunday they heard him say that he would ask the mediation of the UN for a dialog.
This, analysts say, does not signify a "reversal" in his hard hand.
"He is trying to gain time. He wants to familiarize himself with the position of the FARC before he begins governing, in order to know if he has, or not, to use force," affirmed Fernando Giraldo, dean of the Faculty of Political Science of the University Javeriana.
"If the guerilla accepts the proposal he will gain time. If not, the will be able to say that he extended the hand, that it was not taken and that he has reason to work with force," says Giraldo. El país, acostumbrado a la dureza del presidente electo con la guerrilla, esperaba oírlo, como presidente electo, hablando de mano firme contra ella.
Pero el mismo domingo lo oyó decir que pediría la mediación de la ONU para un diálogo.
Eso, dicen analistas, no significa un 'reversazo' en su política de mano dura.
"Está tratando de ganar tiempo. Quiere conocer la posición de las Farc antes de comenzar su gobierno, para saber si tiene o no que usar la fuerza", afirma Fernando Giraldo, decano de la Facultad de Ciencias Políticas de la Universidad Javeriana.
"Si la guerrilla acepta la propuesta habrá ganado tiempo. Si no, puede decir que le extendió la mano, que ella no la tomó y que tiene razones para obrar por la fuerza", dice Giraldo. El Tiempo also reports that the United Nations is studying Uribe's request for mediation.
El Colombiano (Medellin) notes another effect (perhaps intended, perhaps not) of Uribe's proposal--the inclusion of the self-defense forces (autodefensas) in negotiations.The proposal, that he detailed yester, in his first press conference as president elect, included the AUC (self-defense forces), that until now have been exclused from every peace dialog in Colombia. "With the illegal self-defense forces we are searching for them to compromise to not assassinate one Colombian more, to cease hostilities in order to facilitate a process of conversations with them," he assured. La propuesta, que detalló ayer, en su primera conferencia de prensa como mandatario electo, incluye a las Auc, que hasta el momento habían sido excluidas de cualquier diálogo de paz en Colombia.
"Con las autodefensas ilegales buscaremos que se comprometan a no asesinar un colombiano más, a entrar en ese cese de hostilidades para facilitar un proceso de conversaciones con ellos", aseguró. On one level, inclusion of the AUC is obvious and necessary; they are the second largest of three illegal armed forces in the country; it is unreasonable to talk with the other two while refusing to talk with them alone. On the other hand, inclusion of the AUC in talks tends to give it the same status as the other two groups, the FARC and ELN (National Liberation Army). This the international left will find it difficult to abide. Undoubtedly it is this aspect of Uribe's proposal that has the UN saying "it will examine with care and interest the proposal...with respect to the future role of the organization in the new peace efforts" ("examinará con cuidado e interés las propuestas...respecto al futuro papel de la organización en los nuevos esfuerzos de paz"), rather than congratulating Uribe for growing and leaping to accept his invitation.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Purge protested: Fifteen high military officials publicly protested the possible elimination from the military of officers involved with the brief overthrow of President Hugo Chávez, reports El Nacional. The officers say their cases are being handled administratively, while the national constitution requires that they be judged by the Supreme Court of Justice. Although this is striking--it is not usual to see admirals and generals in full uniform engaged in public protest--this is just a one vignette in an on-going purge, win which Chávez seeks to ensure the loyalty of Venezuela's armed forces.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Peronist governors meeting: President Edurado Duhalde received the support of the country's Peronist governors yesterday, La Nacion reports. Support came in the form of a reaffirmation of the 14-point agreement of April. So, Duhalde obtained the political oxyten that was needed to stay in power, after the past week during which he had threatened to resign if he did not receive concrete support from the governors of his party. Así, Duhalde obtuvo el oxígeno político que necesitaba para mantenerse en el poder, luego de que la semana pasada había amenazado con renunciar si no recibía un apoyo concreto de los gobernadores de su partido. The governors' help also became necessary after the National Assembly defeated one of the IMF's key damands, repeal of the economic subversion law. With the governors backing, it is now more likely that the Senate will reverse the Assembly's action.With respect to the repeal of the law of economic subversion, Duhalde the governors and the leader of the bloc of Peronist senators, José Luis Gioja, reviewed the numbers needed to approve the law today in the Senate. "We are assured of having the votes of the PJ in the Senate," said (Juan Carlos) Romero (Governor of Salta) to La Nacion. Respecto de la derogación de la ley de subversión económica, Duhalde, los gobernadores y el jefe del bloque de senadores del PJ, José Luis Gioja, repasaron los números para aprobarla hoy en el Senado. "Tenemos asegurados los votos del PJ en el Senado", dijo Romero a LA NACION. In return, the paper says, the governors asked two things: 1) the national government move quickly to an agreement with the IMF; 2) elections be advanced to March, from September, 2003. Elections for public offices will be preceded, under the agreement reached at this meeting, by internal elections in all parties in October or November of this year. This schedule appears to have been designed to head off growing demand for early elections--from the public and some governors--by creating a series of interim elections that are as far off as possible, without being discouragingly distant. The subject of early elections consumed a great deal of time at the governors' meeting, which is not the best news for Duhalde if he wishes to finish out the term to which he was appointed.
. . .
Monday, May 27, 2002
ARGENTINA
Magnitude of the disaster: Clarin reported Monday that real pay in Argentina is at the lowest level in the last 50 years. That would be since 1952, just about the time Juan Peron had finished redistributing away the nation's wealth.With an inflation averaging 21.1%, between January and April, and with a climb of 35.2% in the basic food basket--after severalyears of nominal deflation in salaries--specialists admit that the real salaries of Argentine workers is found in reality at the lowest point in the last 50 years. Con una inflación promedio del 21,1% entre enero y abril, y con una suba del 35,2% en la canasta básica de alimentos--tras varios años de deflación nominal en los sueldos--los especialistas admiten que el salario real de los trabajadores argentinos se encuentra en la actualidad en el punto más bajo de los últimos 50 años. In detail:The average real monthly salary is 535 pesos. But in October is was 570 pesos. Due to price increases, this does not have the same purchasing powr as before: Between October and April average inflation was 20%. That is to say that in order to purchase the same as six months ago, today the average salary would have to be 684 pesos. If one considers only the basket of basic foods and services for lower income people, inflation was 30%, with which the 570 pesos of October would be equivalent today to 741 pesos. So in order to have the same real salary as in October, one would have to increase salaries 38.5%.
"A devaluation of this magnitude with high unemployment, provokes a very rapid fall in salaries. Already last year in the private sector there has been a fall of the nominal salary, on average of 5%, to which is added the reduction of extra hours, premiums and allowances," admitted Ernesto Kritz, of the Society of Labor Studies. And he added: "Now, due to the increase of prices, the fall in the real salary is about 30%. The intensity of pay deterioration is greater than in the hyperinflation of 1989 because of the meagre negotiating ability of the worker because of high unemployment." El sueldo promedio actual es de 535 pesos mensuales . Pero en octubre estaba en 570 pesos. Por el aumento de precios, esa suma hoy no tiene el mismo poder de compra que antes: entre octubre de 2001 y abril la inflación promedio fue del 20%. Es decir que para comprar lo mismo que 6 meses atrás, hoy el sueldo promedio debería situarse en 684 pesos. Si se considera sólo la canasta básica de alimentos y servicios de la gente de menos recursos, la inflación fue del 30%, con lo que los 570 pesos de octubre equivaldrían hoy a 741 pesos. Así para tener el mismo salario real que en octubre, habría que aumentar un 38,5% los sueldos.
"Una devaluación de la magnitud de la actual con alto desempleo, provoca una caída muy rápida del salario. Ya el año pasado en el sector privado hubo una baja del salario nominal, en promedio del 5%, a lo que se agregó la reducción de horas extras, premios y bonificaciones", admite Ernesto Kritz, de la Sociedad de Estudios Laborales. Y agrega: "Ahora, por la suba de los precios, la caída real salarial es del 30% . La intensidad del deterioro salarial es superior a la de la hiperinflación de 1989 por la escasa capacidad de negociación del trabajador por el alto desempleo".
. . .
VENEZUELA
Carmona to exile: El Nacional reports that Hugo Chávez has agreed to let Pedro Carmona, the short-lived interim president, go into exile in Colombia. Carmona will be assured safe conduct from the Colombian embassy in Caracas to Bogata. The circumstances of Carmona's decision to seek asylum in the embassy were noted on Thursday, May 23, in El Sur.
El Nacional also reports that an admiral involved in the attempted ouster of Hugo Chávez has sought asylum in the El Salvador embassy.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Uribe victory roundup: Links to various articles on the presidential election victory of Alvaro Uribe Vélez, who vowed to fight communist guerillas and who survived three assassination attempts:
* The Miami Herald;
* Bloomberg.com;
* Washington Post;
* El Espectador: The legitimacy achieved in the ballot box by Uribe is simply the result of his political strategy, which consisted of proposing as priorities thost things that citizens believe are necessary: peace security and development.
The president elect should know that the social and political situation, his electoral legitimacy and promises made during the campaign, give him paradoxically, a narrow time period in which to maneuver. The guerilla and the paramilitaries are not designing for him an idyllic rustic scene.
La legitimidad lograda en las urnas por Uribe es sencillamente el resultado de su estrategia política, la cual consistió en proponer prioritariamente aquello que los ciudadanos creen necesitar: paz, seguridad y desarrollo.
El Presidente electo debe saber que la situación social y política, su legitimidad electoral y las promesas hechas durante la campaña, le dan paradójicamente un margen de maniobra estrecho en el tiempo. La guerrilla y los paramilitares no le diseñan un panorama folclórico.; * Diario El Pais (Cali): In something of a surprise, The president elect of Colombia, Álvaro Uribe, said today that he will seek to reestablish a dialog witht he guerilla groups with mediation of the United Nations, United States, European Union and neighboring countires.
In this proposal the role of the United Nations will be "fundamental," Uribe stated, when he declared on Radio Bogata "RCN" that the government will formally ask the international organization that it mediate in the almost 40-year old armed conflict.
The president elect admitted that on Sunday evening he presented the initiative to the deputies of the European Parlaiment that acted as observers of the Colombian electora process and that he then visited them in the hotel in central Bogotá that housed his political campaign. El presidente electo de Colombia, Álvaro Uribe, dijo hoy que buscará el restablecimiento del diálogo con los grupos guerrilleros por mediación de la ONU, Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea (UE) y los países vecinos.
En este propósito será "fundamental" el papel de Naciones Unidas, precisó Uribe, quien declaró a la radio bogotana "RCN" que su gobierno pedirá formalmente al organismo internacional que asuma la mediación en el conflicto armado interno de casi cuarenta años. El presidente electo agregó que el domingo por la noche presentó los alcances de la iniciativa a los diputados del Parlamento Europeo (UE) que actuaron como observadores del proceso electoral colombiano y que entonces le visitaron en el hotel del centro de Bogotá que concentró su campaña política.
* Bloomberg.com also notes Uribe's willingness to negotiate.
. . .
Sunday, May 26, 2002
CUBA
Deadbeat dad: Hugo Chávez sees Fidel Castro as a mentor and friend, a father figure, perhaps. Because of their friendship, Chávez has had the Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), sell oil to Cuba at concessionary rates. Recently, in something of a mystery, Venezuelan shipments stopped. Saturday's Miami Herald explains why. Cuba isn't paying.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Sophist to the rescue: Blogger T.L. Wilson, an American in the Paris of South America, reports that U.S. economist Joseph E. Stiglitz has published just in time (Washington Post, Sunday, May 12, 2002) to rescue Argentina's politicos from change.To the surprise and delight of Argentina's politicians the economist J. Stiglitz has absolved them of any responsibility for the mess that the country is in.
Wilson says: Nonsense:Even before Mr. Stiglitz begins his article one finds two huge fallacies: (1) Argentina was not shortchanged. It received huge sums of money. (2) Argentina did not follow the rules. He goes on to quote extensively from the Buenos Aires Herald's deconstruction of Stiglitz piece, which he finds much more persuasive than Stiglitz. From the Herald:In a sense though Stiglitz is right: there can be no doubt that the IMF has made a big contribution to Argentina's plight. It has done so not because it was too permissive when it should have been severe, because its recommendations have been woefully wrongheaded or excessively inhuman but just by being there. The notion, encouraged by people like Stiglitz, that when all is said and done the IMF is responsible for the fate of ramshackle economies like Argentina's has been so widespread here for so long that most politicians have forgotten that in the last resort almost everything depends on them. The very words used both by critics and supporters of whatever government happens to be in power show just how strong their fixation with the IMF is. Like schoolboys, they talk of doing their homework or, when they fail to do that, of bamboozling teacher by cheating and then attributing their misdeeds to dad being out of work and mum is a bit too fond of the gin. On becoming president in January, Duhalde said that Argentina was seeking $20 to $25 billion in new loans; more recently a figure of around $8 billion and $9 billion has come into common use. Argentina will almost certainly get some money. Recently, Argentina was allowed to defer a $130 million loan payment, because this is in the IMF's own interest; either the IMF rolls these payments into new loans, or it recognizes them as bad loans, which it doesn't want to do.
But amounts of this size do Argentina little good. Even if Duhalde got the $20-25 billion he requested, it would only add to the $140 billion the country already owes and can't pay. Worse, it would be a fraction of the amount destroyed since the first of the year. At the end of January, economist Steve Hanke estimated that government actions had already destroyed between $54.4 and $90 billion in accumulated capital (for details and a link,see El Sur). The total capital destroyed is today almost certainly a multiple of that. To repeat, the government of Argentina has managed to destroy more of the country's owned capital in this year to obtain a loan than the face amount of the loan. This is truly bad policy.
In Wilson's view, Argentina was shortchanged... but not by the IMF. The country needs to accomplish many things in order to put itself on the path of joining the first world. Chief among them: * It needs to reform the justice system so that it is truely just.
* It needs to create an independent financial entity.
* It needs to reform the electoral system so that some of Argentina's best and brightest are enticed into public service and so that the average Argentine feels represented in the Capitol.
* It needs to reform the tax laws so that taxes are equitable and collectible.
* It needs to reform property laws so that both real and intellectual property rights are respected.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Uribe wins Álvaro Uribe Vélez was elected the new president of Colombia, without a runoff, reports El Tiempo.The sweeping triumph of Uribe validated his proposal of a hard hand to confront the guerillas of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), after the failure of three years of a peace effort by the government of President Andrés Pastrana, which aborted on the 20th of February past.
But moreover, Uribe--who has as his vice president the newspaperman Francisco Santos--has promised a frontal fight against corruption, a problem that undermines Colombia. El arrollador triunfo de Uribe convalida sus propuestas de mano dura para enfrentar a la guerrilla de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), después del fracaso de tres años de esfuerzo de paz del gobierno del presidente Andrés Pastrana, que abortó el 20 de febrero pasado.
Pero además Uribe -quien tiene como formula vicepresidencial al periodista Francisco Santos- ha prometido una lucha frontal contra la corrupción, un problema que carcome a Colombia. The paper also noted approvingly that election day came off with few problems.The ministerof the interior, Armando Estrada Villa, celebrated that fact that more considerable breaches of the peace had not been presented in the country. (E)l ministro del Interior, Armando Estrada Villa, celebró que no se hubieran presentado mayores alteraciones considerables del orden público en el país. Apparently there were problems in only 11 municipalities, only five of which impeded the process.
. . .
Saturday, May 25, 2002
COLOMBIA
Final pre-election poll: El Tiempo's last poll, published election eve, shows Alvaro Uribe maintaining his lead. Uribe has 48.2%, Horacio Serpa has 27.4%. These results are almost unchanged from the previous poll.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Resign? Who me? Pagina12/WEB reports today that President Duhalde says he never intended to resign and that his allies are minimizing the magnitude of the government's defeat in the National Assembly (see yesterday's Argentina posts).Throughout all yesterday morning, the ministers repeated without stopping that what happened in the chamber was not a display of presidential weakness. "All is well, those that say this is a defeat for Duhalde are operating against the government," assured a close presidential collaborator. Durante toda la mañana de ayer, los ministros repitieron sin cesar que lo sucedido en la Cámara no era una muestra de debilitamiento presidencial. "Está todo bien, los que dicen que es una derrota para Duhalde están operando en contra del Gobierno", aseguró un estrecho colaborador presidencial. Ever skeptical, Pagina/12 sees a less rosy scenario:Duhalde and his people dream, hope, desire and plead that the meeting with the governors will serve to strengthen his administration. Nevertheless, it is much more probable that he will listen to strong recriminations about his insulting coalition with the Buenos Aires Radicals, they will demand of him the breaking of this agreement and better adherence to the decisions that the governors adopt. The President has little margin for error. He has even less to dissemble. Duhalde y su gente sueñan, esperan, desean y ruegan que el encuentro con los gobernadores sirva para fortalecer su administración. Sin embargo, es mucho más probable que escuche fuertes recriminaciones sobre su tan mentada coalición con los radicales bonaerenses, le exijan la ruptura de ese acuerdo y un mayor encolumnamiento a las decisiones que adopte el pleno de los gobernadores. El Presidente tiene poco margen para evitarlo. Ni siquiera para disimularlo.
. . .
Friday, May 24, 2002
ARGENTINA
Blejer to leave after all: Pagina12/WEB says that Central Bank President Mario Blejer is going to resign after all. Blejer attempted to resign earlier this week, but agreed to stay for patriotic reasons on President Eduardo Duhalde's personal request. The paper says he will stay about two more weeks. According to the Buenos Aires Herald, What Blejer's continuation does achieve is to maintain bridges with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for whom he worked during two decades prior to his current post, but if the government sends out the cynical message that they will hang onto Blejer for as long as it takes to sew up an IMF loan and then throw him out along with any promises made, this will do nothing to improve the outside world's tattered confidence in Argentina. Pagina/12 takes the view that Blejer's upcoming departure is just the beginning:In New York and in Washington, nevertheless, they continue feeling skeptical. Two recognized experts from Wall Street agreed that the most probable scenario is that, behind the departure of Blejer, would follow the chief of state's. And they forsee a quick ending, one that would be produced in the next weeks. En Nueva York y en Washington, sin embargo, siguen siendo escépticos. Dos reconocidos expertos de Wall Street coincidieron en que el escenario más probable es que detrás de la partida de Blejer sobrevendría la del propio jefe de Estado. Y auguran un desenlace rápido, que se produciría en las próximas semanas. An earlier item from Pagina/12 about Blejer's attempted resignation was noted in El Sur yesterday.
. . .
U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA
Free trade A column in the Financial Times counts the cost of recent U.S. protectionist meaures--steel tarrifs and agricultural subsidies--and finds them primarily political.Lost export opportunities for competitive agricultural producers like Brazil and Argentina are part of the problem. But the real damage could be political. Whatever the narrow electoral logic, the willingness of Mr Bush to appease the interests of US steelworkers or farmers has done no favours for those Latin American politicians struggling to win popular support for continued trade liberalisation.
"It undermines those who are in favour of open policies because it creates a feeling that the United States preaches one thing and does the opposite," says Rubens Barbosa, Brazil's ambassador in Washington. "Brazil laid off 100,000 steelworkers and now we find the US is taking measures to protect its steel industry. The media, business and the opposition are starting to pick up on this kind of thing." Worse,The outburst of protectionism has been accompanied by what might be described as a kind of malign neglect of the region. In the wake of the September 11 attacks and the war in Afghanistan, neither the economic melt down in Argentina nor even the political crisis in Venezuela (notwithstanding the controversy surrounding the administration's position during last month's unsuccessful coup against President Hugo Chávez) have excited much interest either within the administration or in congress. With Argentina's government poised for failure, Venezuela's population increasingly polarized, left-right, and Colombia (preparing to ratchet up a war) needing every dollar it can get, the U.S. needs to do everything possible to ensure the economic health of those Latin American countries that haven't succumbed to populism and remain relatively prosperous. That would be Mexico and Chile, principally.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Post-elections, wider war? Presidential candidate Alvaro Uribe is almost certain to have a big lead over his nearest challenger in Sunday's first round of voting, and may receive the 50 per cent needed to avoid a run-off. In "The Americas" column in today's The Wall Street Journal (no link), Mary Anastasia O'Grady sees Colombia guerilla war widening in two directions, once the election is over.
The first way is into neighboring countries. Already the war has spilled over into Venezuela, Peru and, lately, Brazil, a problem raised recently in The Miami Herald (linked to yesterday by El Sur).
Less obviously, O'Grady expects a renewed assault on the Colombian government from Western apologists for communist terror in the United States and Western Europe. She cites, as an example of what's to come, the reaction among American leftists to killing of 119 civilians by a FARC missile in Bojayá.One might expect such an atrocity to provoke outrage against the FARC guerillas...But 22 U.S. congressmen--including John Conyers, Maxine Waters, Donald Payne and Carrie Meek--seem to see the incident as a chance to continue prosecuting the Clinton State Department's war against the colombian military, the only protection Colombians have against FARC depredations. During the Clinton years. U.S. policy not only refused to help Colombia make its military more effective, but it pressured the government to remove the institution's best leaders whenever FARC sympathizers made charges against them.
Now Mr. Conyers et al have sent a letter to Colombian president Andres Pastrana asking for "explanations" for the military's "lamentable inaction" in the massacre. They also complain that when the military did arrive, it engaged in "indiscriminately bombing," even though only one death was reported. O'Grady points out--also as previously noted in El Sur--that:The United Nations...is making similar noises. This being the case, O'Grady continues:In running the war, Mr. Uribe will also have to defend against the FARC's propaganda campaign. The military will be under constant international assault from the likes of California Congresswoman Waters--a fan of Fidel Castro and a defender of Lori Berenson, convicted in a Peruvian court of helping "Shining Path" terrorists. The question remains as to whether Mr. uribe is smart enough and tough enough to outfight and outpropagandize the left and keep Colombians united behind the struggle. The Bojayá incident is a good example of the challenges he'll face...
"The Uribe campaign has been inept at dealing with the foreign press. It doesn't return phone calls and has bungled responses to unsubstantiated accusations. If Mr. Uribe is elected he'll have to do better. Othersise, the FARC, with the complicity of the U.S. and Europe, will run the war outside Colombia, and may well defeat him.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Another believer: Also seeing early elections is bogger T.L. Wilson (treasaigh.com), an American living in Argentina. He says: The candidates are out of their blocks! Judging by the internet sites that have recently popped up the jockeying has started. He then provides links to several potential candidates. They are believers too.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Coming apart II: President Eduardo Duhalde's problems continue to multiply. Having just lost a vote to repeal Argentina's law of economic subversion (see immediately preceding post), Duhalde now faces a summit with the Peronist governors on Monday, reports Clarin. The governors quoted by the paper, Juan Carlos Romero of Salta and Felipe Solá of Buenos Aires, expressed support for the government and rejected the possibility of early elections. But what's important is that they found it necessary to reiterate their support--only just given in April, in another summit--and reject early elections.For his part, the Buenos Aires governor, Felipe Solá, expected that next monday the Peronists will give "their support" to President Eduardo Duhalde, although he recognized that "a difficult moment" will be experienced.
Even as he admitted that possibly, in the meeting in Santa Rosa, the subject of elections will be raised, he said "I believe that this (the decision to advance elections) would not emerge from there."
The governor recognized the demand from a growing part of society since they anticipate presidential elections, but said that those who have the responsibility to govern should weigh if really "this can make things better." Por su parte, el gobernador bonaerense, Felipe Solá, anticipó que el próximo lunes los mandatarios justicialistas darán "su respaldo" al presidente Eduardo Duhalde, aunque reconoció que éste atraviesa "un momento difícil".
Si bien admitió que posiblemente, en la reunión de Santa Rosa, se hable sobre el tema electoral, dijo que "creo que no saldría de allí" la decisión de adelantar los comicios.
El gobernador reconoció el reclamo de un amplio sector de la sociedad por que se anticipen los comicios presidenciales, pero dijo que quienes tienen la responsabilidad de gobernar deben sopesar si realmente "eso puede mejorar las cosas". Meanwhile, the interior minister, Jorge Matzkin,...assured that "in no way" will the meeting President Eduardo Duhalde will have next Monday in La Pampa with the Peronist governors, "convert itself into a Chapadmalal," an allusion to the setback suffered by his predecessor, Adolfo Rodríguez Saa, in this spa, when he was not supported by the leaders and had to resign. ...aseguró que "de ninguna manera" la reunión que el presidente Eduardo Duhalde mantendrá el lunes próximo en La Pampa con los gobernadores justicialistas, se "convertirá en un Chapadmalal", en alusión al revés que sufrió su antecesor, Adolfo Rodríguez Saa, en ese balneario, cuando al no ser respaldado por los mandatarios tuvo que renunciar. Matzkin also told the news agency Télam that Duhalde would not resign. He also told Télam that he expects the Senate to definitively repeal the law of subversion on Tuesday.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Coming apart: Argentina's National Assembly has defeated a key piece of legislation, reports Bloomberg.com. What the National Assembly rejected is repeal of the law of economic subversion, originally enacted in 1974 as a way of defunding communist urban guerillas, and used since to prosecute--really persecute--bankers and businessmen in order to appease the mob.Lawmakers instead approved early today an opposition-led proposal that increases penalties and makes it easier to prosecute bankers, businessmen and former government officials for the country's economy crisis. Duhalde threatened to resign if Congress failed to scrap the law or restrict its reach, a condition of IMF aid. According to La Nacion, the defeat surprised Chief of Cabinet Alfredo Atanasof and Interior Minister Jorge Matzkin who came to observe the vote. La Nacion attributes the result to the opposition of UCR (Radical Civic Union) and a bloc of Peronists. Excerpts from the debate:
Margarita Stolbizer (Radical Civic Union, Buenos Aires):"The road of the executive in responding to the extortion of the IMF is a mistaken direction. Even those who point out in good faith that the law is not for impunity cannot deny the disturbance that this change is generating," she specified. “El camino del Ejecutivo para responder a la extorsión del FMI es el rumbo equivocado. Incluso quienes plantean de buena fe que la ley no es impunidad no pueden negar la perturbación que genera este cambio”, puntualizó. Mario Cafiero (Alternative for a Republic of Equals, Buenos Aires): "Today we have the ultimate act of treason to our people and our history," (he added) after reviewing a report that was presented last week about the emptying out of the financial system. “Hoy hacemos el último acto de traición a nuestro pueblo y a nuestra memoria”, (añadió) después de reiterar un informe que presentó la semana pasada sobre el vaciamiento del sistema financiero. Nilda Garré (FREPASO, Federal Capital):We are going to vote in favor of legal convictions, but we reject the unfriendly pressure of the IMF, whose motives turn out to be, at least, suspicious." “Vamos a votar en favor por convicciones legales, pero rechazamos la inamisible presión del FMI, cuyos motivos resultan, por lo menos, sospechosos”. Beyond the left-wing agitprop, politics is central here. President Edurado Duhalde's Peronists lack a majority in the National Assembly. The Peronists have a majority in the upper house, which can reverse the decision. But before they do, they have to worry about the price; the opposition clearly believes scapegoating is a winning strategy in Argentina today.
Facing the government, opposition leaders smell failure and forsee resignation. They clearly believe that, even if they can't stimulate the latter, they can advance the former. Adding political chaos to economic isn't difficult, since Duhalde has made bad economic move after bad economic move since his first day in office.
Since the beginning, Duhalde has been promising an IMF agreement and an infusion of cash, always just about a month or a month and a half in the future. Most recently, the government has been publicly promising an agreement in July. At this point, it seems more likely that there will be a new government by July.The government, which is spending about 10 percent of its foreign reserves a month to slow the slide of the peso, needs an IMF agreement to restore confidence, analysts said. Duhalde told legislators and provincial governors Wednesday he would quit if Congress failed to meet IMF loan conditions. The government had sought to narrow the definition of the so- called economic subversion law and exclude actions that were deemed negligent or imprudent, as opposed to malicious. Duhalde bet legislators and governors would respond to his threats because they have no candidate to replace him, newspapers said. This becomes a bad bet at the point at which Duhalde threatens to drag his party down with him. Then Peronist party leaders have to consider taking their chances with someone new--and there are ambitious men among the party's governors--while the party retains popular support. The ebb and flow at Duhalde's April summit with the Peronist governors--the search for a replacement for Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov, the cabinet re-shuffle, the week it took--suggests Peronist leaders were already considering their options then. Things are definitely coming to a head in Argentina.
Finally, La Nacion reports that Chief of Cabinet Atanasof denied that Duhalde is considering resigning.
. . .
Thursday, May 23, 2002
VENEZUELA
Demonstration: Even as police intelligence officers were allowing Pedro Carmona to escape--after the Attorney General (Fiscal General) had requested, and a court had granted, revocation of Carmona's house-arrest privilege--thousands marched to demand the resignation of that self-same Attorney General, Isaías Rodríguez.
Opposition leaders and supporters charge that the Attorney General's investigation of the shootings that took place during anti-Chávez demonstration April 11 is biased, El Nacional reports.
More then 20 groups sponsored the demonstration. Rodríguez said the demonstration was legitimate, but refused to resign.
. . .
VENEZUELA
Carmona seeks political asylum: Pedro Carmona Estanga, the businessman who was Venezuela's interim president for less than one weekend in April has taken refuge in the Colombian embassy in Caracas, reports El Universal.
The story in El Nacional contains the following paragraph:According to declarations of Luis Penzini Fleury, friend of the ex-president of Fedecámaras, a service employee declared that Carmona had been taken from his house, together with his wife and son, by functionaries of the DISIP (Dirección de Servicios de Inteligencia Policial, police intelligence) with the purpose of carrying out an interrogation. Según declaraciones de Luis Penzini Fleury, amigo del ex presidente de Fedecámaras, una empleada de servicio declaró que Carmona habría sido sacado de su casa, junto a su esposa e hijo, por funcionarios de la Disip con la finalidad de practicarle un interrogatorio. The Yahoo! News - AP story contains this paragraph:Police vehicles had been posted outside Carmona's apartment building and it was not immediately clear how he escaped. In sequence, it seems likely that the Chávez government pushed Carmona into taking this step, to discredit him and get him out of the way. Consider: Carmona was placed in house arrest on April 16; the prosecuting authorities (Fiscala) just requested the house arrest privilege be revoked (saying, if convicted, Carmona could get 70 years); a Venezuelan appellate court yesterday revoked Carmona's house arrest privilege. Then, instead of taking him into custody and sending him to jail, the police, prosecutors and judicial authorities left him free enough to flee to the Colombian embassy. Very convenient; very suspicious.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Looking past the election: Will the expected election of Alvaro Uribe bring about a wider war, one that spills over into neighboring countries, asks The Miami Herald?The answer by most Colombia watchers in the United States is yes. Many predict an intensification of the war no matter who wins in Colombia, or in a second-round election that would be held in June if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote. But most U.S. analysts I spoke with agree that Uribe's long-overdue military offensive to force the FARC to negotiate a serious peace treaty -- and not fool the government the way it did with Pastrana -- will make things worse before they get better. It will most likely result in an increase of Colombian refugees and a rise in kidnappings, violence and drug production by FARC rebels in neighboring countries, they say. Already, The Heraldsays, there have been FARC incursions into Brazil, Peru and Venezuela. Making things worse, the armies of at least two of these countries, Venezuela and Peru, face major internal political problems. Still,The Colombian people seem to agree that things may have to worsen in the short run to improve in the long run, and there is no way Colombia's neighbors will escape the consequences.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Talk of resignation:
1. Is President Eduardo Duhalde thinking of resigning? For the first time since Duhalde took office at the beginning of the year, the press is writing about his possible resignation--and about the denials that immediately follow. There has been talk in the past about elections, especially during the Peronist summit in April. In fact, the threat of early elections was one of the things that brought Argentina's Peronist governors back into line. But resignation is new. In the end, resignation would almost certainly lead to early elections, but only after once again giving the Peronist panjandrums the opportunity to display selfishness, fecklessness and childishness in the search for another appointee, which is what makes it a bigger threat than early elections alone. Although it is clear that Duhalde never really considered resigning, the subject is now farther out in the open.
Duhalde is just returned from the European Union-Latin American summit in Spain, where he was told that aid from anywhere in the European Union depends on achieving agreement with the IMF. After the summit, he went to Italy, where he was told the same thing. Apparently the Spaniards and Italians (each with companies with big losses due to Argentina's financial follies) brought Duhalde to religion: "For the first time," reports Pagina/12Eduardo Duhalde threatened yesterday to present his resignation if the Congress and the governors did not comply with the compromises made with the International Monetary Funds. The president gave an ultimatum to verify not only the willingness of the Radical Party caucus to vote the Law of Subversion. Also the same of the provincial leaders to carry forward the adjustment in their districts. In the Casa Rosada they worried that without the support of the UCR the parlaimentary coalition would break up, which would obligate Duhalde to step aside. Por primera vez, Eduardo Duhalde amenazó ayer con presentar su renuncia si el Congreso y los gobernadores no cumplen con los compromisos asumidos ante el Fondo Monetario Internacional. El Presidente dio un ultimátum al comprobar no sólo la resistencia de la bancada de legisladores radicales a votar la Ley de Subversión Económica. También la de los mandatarios provinciales a llevar adelante el ajuste en sus distritos. En la Casa Rosada se preocuparon en remarcar que sin el respaldo de la UCR se rompería la coalición parlamentaria, lo que obligaría a Duhalde a dar un paso al costado. Taking note of yesterday's Buenos Aires papers, Bloomberg.com suggests that Duhalde's resignation threat was a way to get governors and legislators to meet the IMF's conditions for a loan.
Today, La Nacion reports, quoting Chief of Cabinet Alfredo Atanasof, that "Duhalde "at no time" thought of resigning" (Duhalde "en ningún momento" pensó en renunciar).Nevertheless, he recognized that Duhalde "demanded of the parlaiment that it comply with the firm accords in order to go forward with the plan to permit Argentina to emerge from its crisis, with more delay." Sin embargo, reconoció que Duhalde "exigió al Parlamento que se cumpla con los acuerdos firmados para avanzar con el plan que permita sacar a la Argentina de la crisis, sin más dilaciones". Atanasof also denied that there has been any new discussion of early elections.
2. The possibility of another resignation has also been much in the Argentine press this week, that of Central Bank head Mario Blejer. After going to meet with Duhalde, resignation in hand, reports Pagina/12, Blejer agreed to stay."I ask an effort for the country," the chief of state suggested to him, and Blejer was not able to deny him. "I am not the kind of person who is going to disregard such a request from a president," he said to his most intimate collaborators...But he also made one thing clear: he does not want to go into history as the head of the Central Bank in the middle of hyperinflation. “Le pido un esfuerzo por la Patria”, le sugirió el jefe de Estado, y Blejer no pudo negarse. “No soy de las personas que vaya a desairar semejante pedido de un Presidente”, les dijo a sus colaboradores más íntimos...Pero que también tiene en claro una cosa: no quiere pasar a la historia como el titular del Banco Central en medio de una hiperinflación. Pagina/12 gives two reasons for Blejer's flirtation with retirement--conflict with the economic ministry over ways releasing frozen bank accounts and the absence of a legal framework (and, so, legal protection) for the restructuring of the financial system, which is taking place piecemeal as banks fail. In the first case, Blejer wants to convert frozen savings into bonds, which protects the banks, while Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna wants to permit the release at least part of the funds for economically productive purposes. Lavagna believes this will stimulate the economy, Blejer believes it will generate capital flight and stimulate inflation. In the second case, Blejer appears to believe that, in the absence of a legal structure, he subjects both the bank and himself to eventual legal proceedings, when the bank involves itself in restructurings.
. . .
Wednesday, May 22, 2002
VENEZUELA
OPEC scofflaw?: Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), the Venezuelan state oil company, has denied a report that it is exceeding its OPEC production quota, under government orders, reports Bloomberg.com.
The government is running a deficit. Oil revenues are down from a year ago. The easy way to quick money is increased oil production. But, Venezuela, under Hugo Chávez, has been a strong supporter of OPEC productions limits. Could Venezuela be cheating?
. . .
Tuesday, May 21, 2002
COLOMBIA
FARC's IRA-trained bombers newly lethal: The Miami Herald reports on new sophistication among the FARC's assassins and bombers, which it attributes to lessons taught by the IRA.In the early hours of April 9, peasants found an abandoned green pick-up truck with a dead body in it alongside a road in Sibate, 20 miles outside Bogotá.
They called police, who noticed the car was rigged. Police and peasants waited all night for the bomb squad, which arrived at daybreak to work with the advantage of daylight. Ruíz, who dismantled 200 bombs during his 10-year career, approached the car with an assistant.
They started snipping at wires when the truck exploded; it was set off by remote control. Someone in town was watching and killed the captain on purpose.
''A uniformed officer goes by, nothing, a citizen goes by, nothing,'' Calán said. "It's when the bomb technician arrives that the bomb goes off.''
According to a U.S. House International Relations Committee report, the advanced techniques and targeting of police are the direct result of IRA influence. Other resources on the FARC-IRA connection include:* A newspaper preview from the Washington Times of the House committee's April 200 hearings on FARC-IRA cooperation.
* A report, Summary of Investigation of Ira Links to Narco-Terrorists in Colombia, prepared by the majority staff of the House Committee on International Relations, April 24, 2002, from The Center for International Policy ("a nonprofit educational and research organization promoting a U.S. foreign policy based on international cooperation, demilitarization and respect for basic human rights");
* A newspsper report on IRA leader Gerry Adams' visit to Cuba December, in The St. Petersburg Times (Florida). This international cooperation is largely commercial in character, oddly, since all the groups involved are more or less Marxist. The FARC is awash in drug money; the IRA (among others, like the Basque ETA) have first-world expertise. One buys what the other sells. Simplicity itself.
. . .
U.S. AND CUBA
Bush's remarks: The The Miami Herald has the text of President Bush's remarks on the 100th anniversary of Cuban independence.
. . .
COLOMBIA
UN fixes blame: The FARC may have lobbed a gas canister filled with high explosives into a church filled with civilians, killing 119, but in the United Nations' eyes it's equally the fault of the Self-Defense Forces (AUC) and the government too, reports El Espectador. In a document of 27 pages that was delivered to the President of the Republic, the office of the United Nations remained clear that the FARC has responsibility in the violent death of more than 100 civilians, and that the authorship of those events was accepted publicly by the rebel organization. With their conduct they denied all the international norms for the regulation of armed conflict.
In equal manner, the United Nations named as responsible the AUC for having exposed the population to the danger of military action, with which it reduced to the minimum the defense options of the population to armed conflicts.
Finally, the United Nations named as responsible the government for not tending to its obligations with respect to the protection of the civil population, hence there were multiple early alerts and calls to attention about the iminent tragedy that was later unleashed in Bojayá. En un documento de 27 páginas que fue entregado al Presidente de la República, la oficina de la ONU dejó claro que las Farc tienen responsabilidad en la muerte violenta de más de 100 civiles, y que la autoría de los hechos fue reconocida públicamente por esta organización alzada en armas. Con su conducta desconocieron toda la normatividad internacional para la regulación de los conflictos armados.
De igual modo, la ONU responsabilizó a las Auc de haber expuesto a la población a los peligros de las acciones bélicas, y de ubicarse en cercanías de los lugares y edificaciones en que se refugiaron los civiles, con lo cual se redujo al mínimo la opción de defensa de la población ajena a las confrontaciones armadas.
Finalmente, la ONU responsabilizó al Estado de no atender sus obligaciones en materia de protección a la población civil, por cuanto existieron múltiples alertas tempranas y llamados de atención sobre la inminente tragedia que posteriormente se desató en Bojayá. There are no innocents here. But the blame is hardly equal, certainly between the illegal armies and the Colombian army. The Colombian army is hard pressed at best and Bojayá is out of the way to say the least. Stories the weekend of the atrocity made much of the difficulty residents had getting out and the military and officials had getting in after the event. It's doubtful the UN would have been at all even-handed had the AUC lobbed the cannister.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Contrast: According to The Washington Post anti-Americanism is on the rise throughout Latin America, especially in Argentina.A series of perceived gaffes by Bush administration officials has also raised public ire. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said in a May 6 speech that Argentina needed to overcome "institutional flaws" such as "corruption" to regain its economic course. That angered Argentines, who wondered where the tough talk was in the 1990s, when the United States and IMF gave unyielding support to then-President Carlos Menem -- a personal friend of President George H.W. Bush but a reviled figure here. Historical note: Menem is undoubtedly reviled today, but couldn't have been while George H.W. Bush was president. Bush's last year in office was 1992; Menem was elected to a second term in 1995 with no major-party opposition.Argentina's two leading newsmagazines, Noticias and Veintitres, published cover stories on speculations that Washington was conspiring to worsen Argentina's crisis, hoping to topple the country's fifth president in five months and further devalue the peso so that U.S. companies could move in and pick off farmlands on the vast, fertile Pampas. Cultural note: As in Venezuela, where people wonder why the oil hasn't automatically made them all rich, in Argentina people wonder why the Pampas haven't automatically made them all rich.U.S. interests "have already taken most of what we have -- and now, they are coming for our lands," said Elisa Carrio, a fiery, left-leaning member of Congress and leading candidate to replace caretaker President Eduardo Duhalde if he were forced to call early elections. That's the Post's take on Argentina. It is cited and quoted at much greater length by Blogger T.L. Wilson, treasaigh.com, an American living and working in Buenos Aires. But is this Wilson's experience as a resident?As an American living "off of the Economy" I have not seen the anti-Americanism this article speaks of. The anti-American comments come from the totally discredited political and union leaders--they are, of course, looking to place blame anywhere except where it belongs. If anything I have heard nothing but praise for the organization and orderliness that Argentine's see in the U.S. and a desire to have the same here. No one here wants to be American, but everyone would like for things to function the way they do in the U.S. Argentines are not ignorant to the cause of their present problems...They know where the blame lies. They know that Collin Powell is right. If anything most wonder why the Secretary of State needs to state the obvious. Indeed, re-examining the Post' article with just one of Wilson's conclusions in view--that the "anti-American comments come from the totally discredited political and union leaders"--the negative comments come from, in order:* Jorge Yoma, a senator from Argentina's governing Peronist party;
* Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue research organization;
* Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, Brazil's left-wing Labor Party candidate for president;
* Argentine pollster Ricardo Rouvier;
* Argentina's two leading newsmagazines, Noticias and Veintitres;
* Elisa Carrio, a fiery, left-leaning member of Congress (quoted above), as well as others of the same sort unnamed. The pollster may know something; the rest are, as Wilson says "looking to place blame anywhere except where it belongs."
The two items just below this in Wilson's blog, also published today, are also excellent. One is on the banking crisis, the other on the unwillingness of the Buenor Aires provincial government to cut spending, as was agreed at the Peronist governors summit with President Duhalde in April.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Economic update:
1. La Nacion reports that the price of a basket of basic foods has increased by 42 per cent in the Buenos Aires area since the beginning of the year, which is when the one-to-one, dollar-peso link was cut by the government of President Eduardo Duhalde. A large part of the increase came in April. The basket consists of some 50 items. The study was done by the city's office of economic development.
2. La Nacion also reports that the dollar has risen to 3.5 pesos for sale. Dealers in currency will pay 3.4 pesos per dollar. At the time Roberto Lavagna was appointed economy minister the peso was at about 3.2 to the dollar for sale. Thus, the peso continues to decline.
3. The government denied that it is considering taking control of two more bankrupt banks, reports Clarin. The two are Sudameris, which is Italian owned, and Societe Generale, which is French owned. Over the weekend, the national bank took over three subsidiaries of Crédit Agricole, when the French bank refused to recapitalize them. (This was noted in El Sur yesterday.) At the same time the government indicated that it intended to find a buyer for the former Credit Agricole subsidiaries as soon as possible, Clarin says."The decision that the government has taken in these times is to absorb the three banks that had difficulties in an absolutely temporary form," he (the chief of cabinet, Alfredo Atanasof) assured in a press conference in the press office in the Casa Rosada. “La decisión que el Gobierno ha tomado en estos momentos es la de absorber en forma absolutamente transitoria a los tres bancos que tuvieron dificultades en estos días", aseguró en una conferencia de prensa ofrecida en Casa Rosada. A report on the state of banking, in the wake of Credit Agricole's departure appears in today's Financial Times.Much of the banking sector is technically insolvent, with more debts than assets. Five months of capital controls have also slowed the depletion of the banks' cash reserves. After uncoupling the Argentine peso from the US dollar in January, the government forced banks to convert their dollar assets into pesos at parity, while switching dollar deposits into the local currency at a rate of 1.4 pesos. This wiped an estimated $9bn off banks' balance sheets. This last raises an important point. References to the Argentine government's "theft" of individual and corporate assets often appear in the press, including in El Sur. This emphasizes the immorality of the government's actions, but obscures the actuality of what was done. What the government did isn't the "theft" of capital, but the destruction of capital. No one got the $9 billion cited above--it simply ceased to exist. Banking is just one sector in which government action has destroyed massive amounts of capital in Argentina. As early as the end of January, economist Steve Hanke estimated that government actions had destroyed between $54 and 90 billion in accumulated capital (see El Sur).Finally, the Financial Times reports, Standard & Poor's, the credit rating agency, last week warned in a report that the Argentine banking crisis had only just begun. So, expect more of this not less, and don't expect that the government will find takers for the banks it wants to sell, no matter what government spokesmen tell the press.
4. RGB Group Inc. is seeking male and female nurses from Argentina to work in Florida, reports Clarin.
. . .
Monday, May 20, 2002
VENEZUELA
Update: From Yahoo! News - AP, an update on the increasing economic and political problems of the government of President Hugo Chávez, which include: a big budget deficit, a declining economy (according to private economists), and political protest.
. . .
US AND LATIN AMERICA
Congress muffs trade legislation: This week's Latin Business Chronicle reports on two major trade defeats in the U.S. Senate. These were:
* Continuing the Andean Trade Preferences Act (ATPA), which has given duty-free access to the United States market to Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, in part to help those countries create alternatives to coca production and drug trafficking. The Senate did not act to continue the pact. As a result it expired on May 16.
* Approving "fast-track" free-trade negotiating authority with an amendment that effectively nullifies the authority. The point of "fast-track" authority is to allow an administration to negotiate a trade treaty, which is then submitted to the Senate for a single up-or-down vote on the treaty in its entirety. The Senate bill allows the Senate to vote on free-trade treaties piecemeal. Not only does this defeat the purpose of "fast-track," it makes it unlikely that any country will negotiate seriously with U.S. trade representatives.
In the wake of these Senate decisions, the Latin Business Chronicle is almost certainly correct in saying,All in all, free traders in the Americas have little reason to celebrate these days.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Bank withdrawl: Another foreign bank has refused to refinance its three Argentine subsidiaries, reports Bloomberg.com. The French company, Credit Agricole SA, has refused inject capital into the three Argentine banks it owns to replace money depositors are pulling out as fast as they can.Banco de la Nacion Argentina will assume control of Credit Agricole's Banco Bisel SA, Banco del Suquia SA and Banco de Entre Rios SA, Argentina's central bank said in a statement.
Chief Executive Officer Jean Laurent on March 19 said Credit Agricole may abandon its Argentine business, where it owned 70 percent of Banco Bisel, the country's 13th-largest lender with 2 billion pesos ($592 million) of assets and 1.1 billion pesos of deposits as of Dec. 31.
Banco Bisel is an important agricultural lender, through its 168 branches in the breadbasket provinces of Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe, its headquarters.Foreign banks, including Credit Agricole, Citigroup Inc. and Santander Central Hispano SA, have lost $8.5 billion in Argentina and are unwilling to put more money into the South American country. Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia became the first foreign bank on May 7 to say it planned to stop doing business in the country and unload its local unit. The Argentine public seems to believe that one of the world's primary responsibilities is to keep lending them money, which they steadfastly refuse to repay. The withdrawl of Credit Agricole reflects a growing consensus that Argentina is economically and politically irresponsible, that absolutely nothing except empty promises can be expected from the political class (with the full support of the populaution in this, if not much else), and that things are not going to get better any time soon. The current government, which is committed only to giving lip service to IMF demands, is unlikely to improve. Probably coming from the left, this government's successor will be officially committed to redistribution, though--joke's on them--by the time they actually achieve the power to redistribute wealth, there will be little private property left to redistribute. That will be when the real squawking starts. It will also be when real reform can begin, reform that creates institutions that are capable of protecting property and insisting that the government and people of Argentina live up to their promises. Until then, putting money into Argentina is throwing it away.
. . .
Sunday, May 19, 2002
ARGENTINA
More bad news for Duhalde: Another poll containing bad news for President Edurado Duhalde appears in today's Pagina12/WEB. This poll shows that 56 per cent want immediate elections, up from 36 per cent in January. In addition, 90 per cent of these want elections for all offices, not just president.The data reflect a very clear upset in the last weeks: pessimism broke all records, negative opinions about Duhalde grew strongly, the impression grew that a hyperinflation could occur, and there is an increasing rejection of an agreement with the IMF. Los datos reflejan un vuelco muy nítido de las últimas semanas: el pesimismo bate todos los records, crecieron fuertemente las opiniones negativas sobre Duhalde, se incrementó la impresión de que puede haber un proceso hiperinflacionario y hay un extendido rechazo al acuerdo con el FMI. In these findings the poll is not significantly different than the poll taken by Gallup and published in La Nacion (see just below).
However, this poll examines what kind of results early elections might produce. The tentative answer (one very much pleasing to Pagina12) is for gains on the left.
Right now, the poll's leader is Elisa Carrió, a national assembly deputy from Chaco, and a leader of the Alternative for a Republic of Equals party (Alternativa por una Republica de Iguales). In second is Luis Zamora, deputy from the capital and member of the Self-Determination and Freedom Party (Autodeterminacion y Libertad) party, a socialist party. Also receiving support are Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, who served as president for about a week in December, before resigning and making way for Duhalde, and Carlos Reutemann (Partido Justicialista, or Peronist) a former Grand Prix driver and current governor of the province of Santa Fe.
Elisa Carrió shows surprising support. She has enormous potency in the interior of the country--21 per cent say that they would vote for her--although the questioning was concentrated in the big cities of the interior. In Greater Buenos Aires she also leads with 17 per cent and in the Capital she ties Zamora at 14 per cent. Luis Zamora is very strong in the Capital, he almost maintains his support in Greater Buenos Aires--12 per cent--and falls very strongly in the interior where he collects five percent. Elisa Carrió muestra un dato sorprendente. Tiene una enorme potencia en el interior del país--21 por ciento dice que la votaría-- aunque la encuesta se concentra en las grandes ciudades del interior. En el Gran Buenos Aires también encabeza las posiciones con el 17 por ciento y en la Capital empata con Zamora en 14 por ciento. Luis Zamora está muy fuerte en la Capital, casi mantiene su intención de voto en el Gran Buenos Aires--12 por ciento--y cae muy fuerte en el interior, donde recoge el 5 por ciento. The great bastion for Adolfo Rodríguez Saá is the interior--16 per cent--and he falls significantly in the Federal Capital and Greater Buenos Aires. - El gran bastión de Adolfo Rodríguez Saá está en el interior--16 por ciento--y baja mucho en Capital Federal y Gran Buenos Aires. Carlos Reutemann also is strong in the big cities of the interior--13 per cent--and falls, although less, in the Capital--seven per cent and Greater Buenos Aires, six per cent. Carlos Reutemann también está fuerte en las grandes ciudades del interior--13 por ciento--y baja, aunque menos, en Capital--7 por ciento--y el Gran Buenos Aires, 6 por ciento. It apears that the Justice Party (Peronist), if it does not suffer ruptures, is very much in the running to gain. Adding its supporters--one must recognize that this is a risky hypothesis--would arrive at 30 per cent. It is significant that without a doubt the key will be how the PJ arranges itself internally. The other fact is that the UCR will be set to disappear in the next election, if it does not make alliances. Se aprecia que el Partido Justicialismo, si no sufre rupturas, está muy en carrera para ganar. Sumando sus postulantes--hay que reconocer que es una hipótesis arriesgada--llegaría al 30 por ciento. Esto significa que sin dudas una clave será cómo el PJ arregla su interna. El otro dato es que la UCR tenderá a desaparecer en la próxima elección, si es que se presenta sin hacer alianzas. Concludes Pagina/12:"The Argentine population wants a large renovation--added (the polltaker Eduardo) Fidanza--from the intendencias and provincial legislatures to the high national offices. In this frame, one can announce an event without precedent: the debilitation of extreme bipartisanism. Until now, the PJ and the UCR were accustomed to totalling 90 per cent of the votes, now they do not add up to more than 35 per cent and a good part of this percentage appears in new figures. The impression is that the Argentines are opting, justly, for new people or indulging in a protest vote." "La población argentina quiere una amplia renovación--sintetiza Fidanza--desde las intendencias y las Legislaturas provinciales hasta los cargos más altos a nivel nacional. En ese marco, se puede anunciar un hecho sin precedentes: el debilitamiento extremo del bipartidismo. Hasta ahora, el PJ y la UCR solían sumar el 90 por ciento de los votos, ahora no suman más del 35 por ciento y buena parte de ese porcentaje surge de figuras nuevas. La impresión es que los argentinos optan, justamente, por figuras nuevas o se recluyen en el voto bronca." It should be noted that the poll, taken by Catterberg y Asociados, of 602 people, was confined to the six urban areas, the Federal Capital, Greater Buenos Aires, Gran Córdoba, Rosario, Gran Mendoza y Gran Tucumán.
. . .
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
Chávez with Farc? Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is opposed to adding Colombia's FARC communist guerilla army to the Eruopean Union's list of terrorist organizations, El Tiempo reports. Chávez delivered his opinion during a press conference in Madrid where he, along with Colombian president Andres Pastrana and several other Latin American Leaders, are attending a summit with European Union countries. Chávez said he believed listing the FARC woud not help the peace process.
Colombian officials would not comment immediately. "These things cannot be answered in the heat of the moment," said a spokesman ("Estas cosas no se pueden contestar en caliente", dijo un portavoz.).
There is some possibility Chávez's stance could still prevent the European Union from naming FARC a terrorist organization, despite the fact that Pastrana was promised the listing in meetings at the summit (see El Sur). Once the summit breaks up and Pastrana heads home, France and Sweden, the FARC's main apologists, may find it convenient to change their minds again. Disgusting, but it would not be surprising from these two.
It is important to note that there are constant reports of cooperation between Venezuelan army units and the FARC, as well as reports that FARC is using Venezuelan soil as a sanctuary, with the Chávez government's at least tacit permission. Chávez alwasy denies the charge.
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COLOMBIA
Poll: Uribe extends lead: In what will probably be the last poll taken before Colombia's May 26 election, Alvaro Uribe a former governor who promises to take a harder line against guerillas, has extended his lead slightly, according to a report in El Tiempo. According to the poll, Uribe is leading his nearest challenger 49.3 to 23.0. In second is Horacio Serpa, who led last fall. Íngrid Betancourt, who was kidnapped by the FARC guerillas earlier this year, and is still being held, has 1.4 per cent.
A second story in El Tiempo, indicates that it is mathematically possible for Uribe to win more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round. To be elected in Colombia, a candidate must receive more than 50 per cent. If not candidate does so in the first round, a second round between the two leaders is held. In any case, Uribe is strongly favored to win a second-round vote against any of his opponents.
A chart showing the candidates' standing since Septermber 2001 is here.
The poll also indicates that Colombians do not think things are going well in the country, as another story in El Tiempo shows.
April's results were noted in El Sur. March's results were also noted in El Sur.
With barely a week to go before the vote an Uribe win is likely, probably on the first vote. Stepped up guerilla activity subsequent to his election and innaguration in August would be likely, if it weren't for the fact that the guerillas are already in the middle of a big campaign. One change that is likely to follow Uribe's innauguration is stepped up pressure on the Colombian government from the international left. Uribe will make a tempting target for Sandalistas and so-called human rights organizations alike.
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ARGENTINA
Poll: A poll published in La Nacion Sunday contains nothing but bad news for nearly every institution in the country. Among the most important findings of the poll, which was conducted by Gallup, are:* Asked how their institutions are responding to the country's crisis, not one political institution received a positive response of more than 10 per cent.
* Only the church and media were viewed positively by more people than viewed them negatively.
* 46 per cent of those polled would prefer early elections, instead of permitting President Eduardo Duhalde serve out the term to which he was appointed at the end of last year, up from 35 per cent last month.
* 43 per cent want Duhalde to complete his term, down from 58 per cent last month.
* 74 per cent disapprove of Duhalde's performance in office. La Nacion provides detailed graphs, including:* What Argentines fear.
* Support levels for various institutions.
* How the public Views the situation For the poll, Gallup interviewed 1256 people age 17 and over, between May 10 and 15, in 27 separate localities.
About the only good news for Duhalde, to govenors and members of the national legislature is that everyone else is rated the same or worse.
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Saturday, May 18, 2002
COLOMBIA
EU to agree, finally: French President Jacque Chirac denied that France attempted to stop the listing of FARC as a terrorist group, says El Tiempo, in an article detailing Colombia's apparent success in getting the European Union to (finally) agree to such designation.Curiously, the president of France Jacques Chirac declared in Madrid that his country never opposed the inclusion of the FARC in the list of terrorist groups, a story that he attributed to "some false information." Chirac said he knew that "there had been an country that opposed that, but it was not France, that it is determined to reinforce, in all areas, the fight against terrorism." Curiosamente, el presidente de Francia Jacques Chirac declaró en Madrid que su país nunca se opuso a la inclusión las Farc en la lista de grupos terroristas, versión que atribuyó a "una información falsa." Chirac dijo saber que "hubo un país que se opuso, pero no fue Francia, que está determinada a reforzar, en todos los dominios, la lucha contra el terrorismo." Curious indeed. Nevertheless, it does appear that the EU is ready, a week after the massacre at Bojayá (Chocó), in which more than 100 were killed by the FARC as they sought shelter in a church, to admit the truth--FARC is a terrorist organization.Pastrana revealed that in the setting of the intense work of "lobbying" by the chancellor Guillermo Fernández de Soto no less than himself this change was brought about, the compromise of the countries that had doubts about the fitness of this decision was welcome. "The Swedish chancellor no less than the Fench chancellor have expressed to us their solidarity with Colombia for the inclusion of the FARC as terrorists on the 23rd upcoming. Pastrana reveló que en el marco de las intensas labores de 'lobby' que tanto él como el canciller Guillermo Fernández de Soto adelantaron en esta cumbre, se recibió el compromiso de los países que tenían dudas sobre la conveniencia de esa decisión. "Tanto la canciller de Suecia como el canciller francés nos han expresado su solidaridad con Colombia para la inclusión de las Farc como terroristas el próximo día 23." Not everyone in Europe has got the message, however. The Swiss reiterated their neutrality between the communist FARC guerilla army and the elected government of Colombia.Pastrana directed to them a forceful response to the declaration of neutrality from a spokesman of the Swiss chancery and returned to the subject of the terrorist character of the FARC, bringing forth a strong response from Pastrana. "In these moments, in the world one cannot be neutral in the face of terrorism...and for this we ask an explanation of the Swiss chancery in order to know if this is an official pronouncement," said the President, who recalled that the FARC has committed more than 700 terrorist outragesin the last five months. Pastrana le dio una fuerte respuesta a la declaración de neutralidad de un portavoz de la cancillería suiza en torno al tema del carácter terrorista de las Farc. "En estos momentos, en el mundo no puede haber neutralidad frente al terrorismo (...) y por eso pedimos una explicación a la cancillería Suiza para saber si este es un pronunciamiento oficial", dijo el Presidente, que recordó que las Farc cometieron más de 700 atentados terroristas en los últimos cinco meses.
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Friday, May 17, 2002
EUROPEAN UNION AND LATIN AMERICA
Summit news: Amidst much blather, Reuters carries two items of note:But there was little European sympathy for debt-strapped Argentina. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, a visibly irritated Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde at his side, bluntly urged Argentina to take "painful decisions" and secure a deal with the International Monetary Fund as fast as possible. Spain said it expected the EU to add the Colombian guerrilla army FARC to its blacklist of terrorist organizations soon, a move the Colombian government has been pushing for. Aznar is a leader.
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COLOMBIA
After the battle: El Colombiano (Medellin) reports on the aftermath of an ambush of a unit of the Self-Defense Forces by a unit of the FARC at Campamiento, Antioquia province (see map linked at right):El Diablo does not appear among the line of bodies, his wife, with a baby in arms, looks for him without rest, but there is no scent of him for several hours until what was a battlefield and now is a cemetery is discovered. She just arrived from the municipality of Yarumal to find her destiny, because she knew that he is part of the Bloque Mineros of the Self-Defense forces and could be dead, thrown together with the rest of the bodies that are decomposing among the stubble. El Diablo no aparece entre el reguero de cadáveres, su esposa, con un bebé de brazos, lo busca sin descanso, pero no hay rastro suyo en el que hasta hace unas horas era campo de batalla y ahora es un cementerio al descubierto. Ella acaba de llegar desde el municipio de Yarumal a averiguar por su suerte, porque sabía que él hacía parte del Bloque Mineros de las Autodefensas y puede estar muerto, tirado junto con los demás cuerpos que se descomponen sobre el rastrojo. The imprints of combat are visible everywhere...land displaced by grenade explosions, mutilated bodies, crushed vegetation the shows the desparate and futile effort of the wounded to escape the ambush of Front 36 of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC). Some peasants, together with their children, come down to the place to witness the vestiges of the fight. They move naturally among the bodies, with little show of fear. Almost all walk without taking care for possible explosive devices that have not detonated during combat, some of half burried or partly hidden by the dry grass of the place. Las huellas del combate se notan a cada paso...armas vacías, tierra removida por las explosiones de granadas, cuerpos mutilados, vegetación aplastada que muestra el desesperado e inútil esfuerzo de un herido por escapar a la emboscada del frente 36 de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). Algunos campesinos, junto con sus hijos, suben al lugar a presenciar los vestigios del enfrentamiento. Se mueven con naturalidad entre los cuerpos, sin el menor asomo de temor. Sólo algunos pequeños se notan inquietos. Casi todos caminan sin poner cuidado a los posibles artefactos explosivos que no detonaron durante el combate, algunos de los cuales quedaron semienterrados u ocultos parcialmente por las yerbas secas del lugar. "This is the Cat?" The voice of of one of the girls calls to her two companions. After looking for a while and recalling some details, they conclude that this is his body. The cadaver is almost black, its features remain untouched, but are ripe to explode. "Este sí es el Gato?" La voz es de una de las muchachas que llama a sus dos acompañantes. Tras mirar un rato y acordarse de algunos detalles, concluyen que ese sí es su cuerpo. El cadáver está casi negro, sus facciones permanecen intactas, pero a punto de estallar. Better luck have his companions in the AUC, Éder Pérez, 23 years old, and Fabián Velásquez, 18, uncle and nephew respectively, who their neighbors of Campamento recognize and carry to the morgue at the hospital Wednesday night, and from which they left noon yesterday in the direction of the cemetery. Following the coffin, the curious increased. They arrived at the house that until a little while ago they were admitted, where they were permitted only a few minutes, before to be taken to the church, from it which they went to the cemetery. Their family is tranquil, well knows that, although dead, Éder and Fabián are not going to discompose in the weather, exposed to whichever carrion animal. Mejor suerte que sus compañeros de las Auc corrieron Éder Pérez, de 23 años, y Fabián Velásquez, de 18, tío y sobrino respectivamente, a quien sus vecinos de Campamento reconocieron y llevaron hasta la morgue del hospital la noche del miércoles, de la cual salieron al mediodía de ayer rumbo al cementerio. Tras los féretros, los curiosos crecen. Llegan a la casa que hasta hace poco los acogió, donde permanecen sólo unos minutos, antes de ser llevados a la iglesia, de la cual salen al cementerio. Su familia está tranquila, pues sabe que, aunque muertos, Éder y Fabián no se descomponen a la intemperie, expuestos a cualquier animal de carroña. The wife of El Diablo has not recovered her tranquility. In spite of not finding him among the dead of the Alto de la Laguna she knows that still she should look for him on other sides, in order to try to leave, once and for all, the hell that she has confronted. Quien no ha recuperado la tranquilidad es la esposa de El Diablo. A pesar de no encontrarlo entre los muertos de el Alto de la Laguna sabe que todavía debe buscarlo por otros lados, para intentar salir, de una vez por todas, del infierno que tiene enfrente. El Tiempo reports that approximately 130 were killed, roughly equally divided between men from the FARC and the AUC. The FARC assaulted an AUC camp in the early morning. Fighting continued until the army intervened and both guerilla forces left. A photo of the Army recovering bodies, taken for El Tiempo is here.
An English-language account of the battle is available from the AP - Las Vegas Sun.
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ARGENTINA
Bonex in trouble: La Nacion reports that the latest plan to substitute bonds for frozen savings accounts is in trouble, quoting the finance scretary, Guillermo Nielsen. The plan was noted yesterday in El Sur. This is the third Bonex bond-for-savings scheme that has been considered since Eduardo Duhalde took over at the first of the year. The last time it failed, the previous Economic Minister, Jorge Remes Lenicov, resigned. The current Economic Minister Roberto Lavagna supports Bonex III.
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U.S. AND LATIN AMERICA
Trade agreement expires: Yahoo! News - AP reports that a trade agreement between the United States and Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador expired at midnight May 16. Not only will businesses in the Andean countries be required to pay duties on future exports, but they will have to pay as much as $400 million in retroactive duties on exports to the U.S. after February 15. The survival of companies, even entire industries, is at stake, according to the AP. Strong feelings of uncertainty and bitterness came with the expiration of the Andean Trade Preferences Act, a 1991 agreement created to strengthen legal alternatives to cocaine and heroin production. As of Friday, exporters across the South American region faced U.S. duties of up to 40 percent on staple trade items, including flowers and gold. Many in the four South American countries covered by the agreement — Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador — saw its expiration as a double-cross. "Bolivia has put a lot of effort into eradicating coca, which has caused a lot of problems here," said analyst Carlos Villegas, referring to an eradication effort of the plant that produces cocaine. The drive has triggered clashes in which 39 coca farmers, police and soldiers have been killed since 1997. "The least that we expected was some reciprocity from the United States — that they would open up their markets to help us compensate for these losses," Villegas said. In contrast with South American upset, in the U.S. the expiration of the treaty passed with little notice. However, the destruction of Andean-region companies and industries this event will cause will be strongly felt in the United States. Expiration of the agreement provides a convenient excuse to relax unpopular coca eradication programs in South America and is almost certain to stimulate increased immigration into the United States."If the United States wants to grow economically and stem migration, it should promote jobs in this part of the world," Joyce de Ginatta said. The immediate villain here is the U.S. Senate and the textile lobby. Unfortunately, however, this is but one in many recent setbacks to free trade. Nothing in the world today--not even terrorism--is more dangerous than the rise of protectionism and anti-globalization. Unchecked, these movements will bring on a real depression.
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ARGENTINA
Honest Ed: From Bloomberg.com, a quote from Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde, in Spain, on plans to convert frozen savings to bonds:"The Economy Minister (Roberto Lavagna) is finishing the research. We need to make sure that bonds we give to the savers will have value because, otherwise, it would be a trick for those who have trusted in Argentina's banks and financial system." And no Argentina government would ever do that.
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ARGENTINA
It's not all Argentina's fault: Mary Anastasia O'Grady considers an obscure but very important issue in today's The America's column in The Wall Street Journal--accountability and transparency in international financing agency lending.
O'Grady's main point is that when loans by an international lending agency--the World Bank, InterAmerican Development Bank, et.al.--go bad, everyone suffers but the agency. The borrowing country's government gets defeated, the economy collapses, businesses go bankrupt, people are impoverished. Non-public foreign lenders and investors lose their investments. The international lending agencies are typically made whole, however, which leads to the well-known problem of moral risk--lenders with guarantees don't need to be careful in their lending.
Compounding this problem, O'Grady says, is the secrecy in which international lending takes place. Although loans are announced, often with much fanfare, repayment schedules are secret, as O'Grady found when she attempted to follow up on reports that Argentina was past due on an $800 million payment to the World Bank, only to be told that the bank would "not confirm any numbers" and that the "payment schedule is not public information." This is damaging to the political process. Interest in what the government is doing with its dwindling international reserves is running high. The state is broke and is paying wages in scrip. It has defaulted on its private sector debt. Eventually, she says, Argentina disclosed that there was a payment made--press reports indicate $683 million taken from the central bank's reserves--but what for remains secret.That surely dismayed more than a few Argentine bank depositors whose dollar assets have been converted into pesos and are now frozen because the central bank hasn't the funds to make them whole. Such secrecy also makes it difficult for less privileged foreign lenders and investors to accurately assess their risk and for local business and residents to know the true state of their country's finances. This eats away at the effectiveness of market mechanisms and can also weaker political stability in borrowing countries. O'Grady's solution is an end to the international lending agencies first-in-line status.Should IFI (international financial institutions) lenders actually be accountable for what they shell out, with risk of default equal to what the private sector now faces, all the dynamics would change. It would be bad news for the "suits" in Washington who've made a good life out of their "concern" for the poor but it would be good news for the poor themselves, who might bet a better government in the bargain.
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Thursday, May 16, 2002
VENEZUELA
The road to hell: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, in Spain today, made crystal clear his understanding of what the Bolivarian revolution is and the direction he intends to take the country. Speaking at the European-Latin American-Caribbean summit in Madrid Chávez said, according to El Universal: "El neoliberalismo es el camino al infierno." This was a very important speech."It is the road to the hell. It is not for us that have lived (that I say this), but for you who are beginning to live. I call to the young of the world to resist this road," said Chávez at a conference at the Diplomatic School of Madrid. "Es el camino al infierno. No para nosotros los que hemos vivido, sino para ustedes que están comenzando a vivir. Hago un llamado a los jóvenes del mundo para que se resistan a ese camino," dijo Chávez en una conferencia que pronunció en la Escuela Diplomática de Madrid. The national leader indicated that in a country like Venezuela with countless riches, it is not justifiable that 80 per cent of the population lives in poverty. "How can this be explained?" asked Chávez, El mandatario nacional señaló que en un país como Venezuela con incontables riquezas, no se justifica que el 80 por ciento de su población viva en pobreza. "¿Cómo se explica esto?" se preguntó Chávez. The "riches" Chávez is referring to here is oil. Non-Venezuelan commentators constantly point out that Venezuelans, at all levels, have always overestimated the ability of the oil industry to bring widespread prosperity and development. In fact, extractive industries--whether its the Venezuelan oil patch or the western mining areas of the turn of the 20th Century United States, always bring difficult social and economic problems, one of the worst of which is uneven development and vastly unequal incomes. Solutions, not abuse, are needed to overcome them.The chief of state said that the political model that reigned in Venezuela from 1958 until 1998 when he won the presidential election was responsible for the situation in the country. "This political model ended up degenerating into the tyranny of small privileges, of the guilt of parties that resulted in the taking away from the people of their fundamental rights...A democracy without the people is not a democracy although there is a constitution," he commented. He indicated that the Venezuelan economic model, sheltered by the political model, benefited the minority "that has lived very well from the material point of view, but from the spiritual one has not lived very well." El jefe de Estado responsabilizó de tal situación al modelo político que imperó en Venezuela desde 1958 hasta 1998 cuando ganó las elecciones presidenciales. "Este modelo político terminó degenerando en tiranía de pequeños privilegiados, de cúpulas de partidos que terminó quitándole al pueblo sus derechos fundamentales(...) Una democracia sin pueblo no es democracia aunque tenga Constitución," comentó. Agregó que el modelo económico venezolano, amparado por el modelo político, benefició a las minorías ''que ha vivido muy bien desde el punto de vista material, pero desde el espiritual no vive muy bien." Chávez attacked the shortlived government of Pedro Carmona for, he said, conducting "searches, persecutions, assasinations, deterntions," while he was under arrest. He contrasted the actions of the government of Carmona with the "the peaceful course and transformation of the Bolivarian revolution." Contrarrestó la actuación del Gobierno de Carmona con el corte "pacífico y transformador de la revolución bolivariana."
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ARGENTINA
Bonex III According to La Nacion, the government of President Eduardo Duhalde is about to put forward another plan to release funds in frozen savings accounts. Under the new plan, savers would have five options:
1. Accept government bonds.
2. Receive and use a certificate to buy real estate under construction or to be constructed, automobiles, agricultural machinery or industrial machinery.
3. Invest in export financing.
4. Receive and sell a certificate in the open market.
5. Leave the account in the bank for a fixed term.
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Wednesday, May 15, 2002
VENEZUELA
Bolivarian Circles: From El Nacional today:During his plea in the National Assembly, the ex-vice president of the Republic, Diosdado Cabello, gave assurances that the Bolivarian Circles were social organization, and did not possess arms other than the law. Nevertheless, he took advantage of the opportunity to give this advice: "every time that they feel that the democracy is in danger they are going to come out." Durante su interpelación en la Asamblea Nacional, el ex vicepresidente de la República y actual ministro de Interior, Diosdado Cabello, aseguró que los círculos bolivarianos son organizaciones sociales y no poseen otra arma que las leyes. Sin embargo, aprovechó la oportunidad para hacer una advertencia: "cada vez que sientan que la democracia está en peligro van a salir." Moreover, he said: In this respect be informed that, since the month of April until May, the number of organizations of this type has increased from 80,000 to 130,000. En este sentido informó que, desde el mes de abril hasta mayo, el número de organizaciones de este tipo se ha elevado de 80 mil a 130 mil. In this last bit, Cabello seems to have been smarting-off a bit, as this next sentence suggests:"Thanks to the publicity that has been given us, because we don't have the money for this," he indicated. "Gracias por la publicidad que nos han dado, porque nosotros no tenemos dinero para eso," señaló. Cabello should know. As vice-president, he was a leading organizer of the Bolivarian Circles. As minister of the interior and justice, he is in charge of the national police. It is no wonder that the Circles are becoming one of the most controversial institutions in Venezuela.
In his testimony, Cabello also stated that he believes organizers of the April 11 anti-Chávez march intended a provocation that would legitimate a coup--meaning they planned the coup too. He said the march leaders attempted to direct the march to Miraflores Palace, where they knew it would encounter pro-Chávez demonstrators, probably creating a riot.
El Universal also has a story on Cabello's testimony.
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CUBA
Varela II: Former President Jimmy Carter's Cuban trip, and media coverage thereof, has been dominated by two subjects: the U.S. economic embargo and a spat between the past president and current administration, about whether or not Cuba is helping Axis-of-Evil powers and wannabes obtain chemical and biological weapons. Less noted in the media, at least until Carter delivered a nationally televised speech in Cuba May 14, but potentially more important than either of these, is the Varela Project. The Varela Project is a petition campaign that has become the focus of democratic dissidence in Cuba today. Varela participants have gathered 10,000 signatures, as is required under the Cuban constitution, to put important reforms on a referendum ballot. Getting the vote isn't automatic; the national assembly must approve the vote. But by submitting the petitions, Verela organizer Oswaldo Payá and his group have put the Castro regime in a difficult spot. (El Sur noted the project yesterday, commenting on a lengthy article in The Wall Street Journal.)
In his May 14 speech, Carter supported both initiatives, balancing a call for democratic reform with a call for the U.S. to lift the embargo, adding, according to the Yahoo! News - AP account of the event, "Because the United State is the most powerful nation, we should take the first step," Carter said. Carter is the only one who likes both ideas, however. Castro has been mum on Varela so far, though he can't like it. He demands that the U.S. lift the embargo. (There are skeptics who say he just wants to agitate against the embargo, blaming it for communism's inevitable failure, but doesn't want it actually lifted, since nothing much would change for the better, and he'd be out one scapegoat.) The U.S. has made it clear it supports democratic dissidence on the islant, but isn't going to lift the embargo anytime soon--the embargo's political merits, though not necessarily its policy merits--being crystal clear.
If the Carter trip seems to have yielded a stand-off, with nothing changed except the noise level, it is--in the short run. Cuba and the U.S. remain at loggerheads, each making demands that the other can't or won't meet. As for Carter, he remains, in Laura Ingraham's words (from her column in The Los Angeles Times, "the raspberry seed in the wisdom tooth of every administration that succeeded him."
Over the longer term, Carter's visit may turn out to be surprisingly important. Although Carter tried to balance his speech, the two subjects--the embargo and reform--are not at all equal. What is being asked of U.S. is marginal to the U.S.. What is being asked of Castro is fundamental to Cuba. While the continuation or removal of the embargo hardly affects the United States, Varela could mean regime change in Cuba. So the bottom line on Carter's visit is this: He informed Cubans all over the island about Varela, many for the first time, and publicly endorsed it.
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Tuesday, May 14, 2002
VENEZUELA
Still no reconciliation: When he returned to power, President Hugo Chávez issued a call for understanding: "I too have to reflect on many things. And I have done than in these hours," he told The New York Times, as quoted in (and linked from) El Sur. Since then, Venezuela's daily papers have revealed nothing of the kind. The country appears more divided than ever. For example:
1. Former members of the Directorate of Police Intelligence Services (Dirección de Servicios de Inteligencia Policial, DISIP) charge that they were dismissed because they refused to train the Bolivarian circles, which Chávez opponents charge are being turned into armed street gangs like Cuba's block committees (and Chávez partisans claim are political, social and educational clubs), reports El Nacional. The ex-officers also charge that there is a plan to dismantle DISIP in favor of a new semi-official, i.e. pro-Chávez, intelligence structure.
2. General Manuel Rosendo former head of the Armed Forces Unified Command (Cufan), and a Chávez opponent, and the Vice President and former Defense Minister José Vicente Rangel, and a Chávez partisan, are publicly disputing Rangel's role in the events leading up to Chávez's removal, reports El Nacional.Rosendo (in testimony to the National Assembly) accused the ex-minister of defense of coordinating with the mayor of Caracas, Freddy Bernal (a fierce Chávez partisan), the use of the Bolivarian Circles to protect the Palace of Milaflores from the march of the oppositon on April 11. Rosendo acusó al ex ministro de la Defensa de coordinar con el alcalde de Caracas, Freddy Bernal, el uso de los círculos bolivarianos para proteger el Palacio de Miraflores de la marcha de la oposición el 11 de abril. Such use would almost surely have led to a riot. Not surprisingly, Rangel denies it.He indicated that there doesn't exist any recording or proof that supports (Rosendo's) denunciation and attributed it to his simple interest in discrediting the government. Expresó que no existe ninguna grabación o prueba que soporte la denuncia y lo atribuyó al simple interés de desprestigiar al gobierno. El Universal, reports that General Néstor González González has supported Rosendo's version in his testimony to the National Assembly.
3. Two opposition political leaders publicly called on the army to dismantle the Bolivarian Circles, reports El Universal. Julio Borge of Justice First and Francisco Arias Cárdenas of the Union Party agree that it falls to the National Armed Force to dismantle the Bolivarian Circles, that, according to the Chief of State Hugo Chávez, ought to be strengthened. Julio Borges de Primero Justicia y Francisco Arias Cárdenas del partido Unión coincidieron en que le corresponde a la Fuerza Armada Nacional desmantelar a los círculos bolivarianos, que según el Jefe de Estado Hugo Chávez, deben ser repotenciados. Two points:
First, whichever side one believes in these factual disputes (and El Sur tends to believe the opposition) it is clear that bitterness is increasing, not disappearing, more than a month after the short-lived coup.
Second, Chávez's opponents appear more angry than defeated. According to Yahoo! News - AP, for example, the opposition-organized demonstration May 11 commemorating the April 11 events was very large.
Chávez does seem worried, however. El Universal reports that his planned trip to Madrid for a European Union/Latin American summit "remains up in the air" ("sigue en el aire"). If he does go, the report says, it will be at the last moment without notice.
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COLOMBIA
Stunning, if true: The Colombian army accused the FARC of using chemical weapons, reports Diario El Pais (Cali, Colombia). The commander of the Third Division of the Army, General Francisco René Pedraza, in this way revealed it to reporters the explanation about the use of chemical arms on the part of the guerillas of the FARC. El comandante de la III División del Ejército, general Francisco René Pedraza, así lo reveló a periodistas al explicar sobre el uso de armas químicas por parte de la guerrilla de las Farc. To appearances, the lack of air and an intermitent suffocating feeling--without apparent cause--experienced by several of the soldiers in the zone of Los Farallones, is the best proof of the use ofsaid armament. Al parecer, la falta de aire y un ahogamiento intermitente,- sin causa aparente-, de varios de los uniformados en la zona de Los Farallones, es la mayor muestra del uso de dicho armamento. If true, this would be big news indeed.
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COLOMBIA
More FARC killings: El Tiempo reports that the communist guerillas of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia FARC killed two police and a three-year old girl in the province of Tolima, southeast of Bogata. The police were assassinated while patrolling.The little one killed, was walking on the street on the hand of her mother, when the attack came. La pequeña que murió, caminaba por la calle de la mano de su mamá, cuando se produjo el ataque.
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CUBA
Varela Project: Yesterday's (May 13) Wall Street Journal (no link) has a lengthy, front page article on the Varela Project, a petition campaign seeking a referendum on political reform in Fidel Castro's island prison, and its creator Oswaldo Payá. The project, named after a 19th Century Catholic priest and independence advocate Felix Varela, seeks to take advantage of Article 88 of Cuba's constitution which permits any citizen who collects 10,000 signatures to petition the National Assembly for a referendum on any subject.
Payá and his volunteers have gathered more than 20,000 signatures and submitted a pared-down list of 11,020 to the National Assembly last Friday. The petition calls for a national referendum to allow free speech and free elections, amnesty for political prisoners, and the right to own and operate private businesses. Unlike much Cuban dissident activity, the Varela project has been designed in a way that the government finds difficult to counter or dismiss.By calling for a plebiscite guaranteed by the 1976 constitution, the Varela Project is legal, moderate and thus almost impossible to disqualify," says Sebastian Arcos of the Cuban Committee for Human Rights, another local dissident group. The regime, he adds, is in "the uncomfortable dilemma of accepting the plebiscite or admitting it ignores its own laws." As a result, the Journal Cuban officials apparently have not decided how to handle the petition.Some want to simply ignore Varela; others say the growing international prominence of Mr. Payá won't allow such an easy solution. The paper suggests that part of the official paralysis may also be due to Cuba's growing isolation, noting recent spats with Mexico and Uruguay over Cuba's human rights record. At the same time, Cuba's economic situation is deteriorating again."People are at the end of their rope," says Varela volunteer Regis Iglesias, 32. "But all Castro talks about are the glories of the revolution." In fact, the government's uncertain response to Varela reflects the country's uncertainty as the Castro regime seems to be drawing to a close. The Cuban dictator is about 75 years old and is rumored not to be in the best health. Although the New Class nomenclatura plans to retain control under Castro's brother and heir apparent Raul Castro, visitors to the island sense widespread feeling of patient expectation, waiting for Castro's death, anticipating regime change soon after. If so, Oswaldo Payá, age 50, may become a very important figure indeed:"I think Castro doesn't crush Varela because he doesn't see clearly the threat it poses," says Cuban writer Carlos Alberto Montaner, who lives in exile in Madrid. "Meantime, Payá is becoming a sort of Vaclev Havel, a well-khown man of uncompromising moral fiber whom the outside world is watching carefully."
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MEXICO
Big PAN win: President Vicente Fox's National Action Party (PAN) appears to have won an important local election in Mexico, reports Bloomberg.com. The prize is the City of Juarez, won with 46.6 per cent of the vote by Jesus Alfredo Delgado, a 58-year-old lawyer. The election was close enough that his opponent, Roberto Barraza, of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has asked for a recount. Yahoo! News - AP also has a report. El Sur had a pre-election report on May 8.
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Monday, May 13, 2002
ARGENTINA
Finally reality: Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna admitted today that Argentina will not receive new money (plata fresca) even if it comes to terms with the IMF, reports Clarin. If there is an agreement, it would be directed toward writing off obligations to the fund itself. The only new money would be small lines of credit to finance exports.Argentina should face the expiration with the multilaterals of some $9 billion this year "and this is the number to which we can aspire," he indicated. Argentina debe afrontar este año vencimientos con los organismos multilaterales por unos 9.000 millones de dólares "y esa es la cifra a la que podemos aspirar," señaló. From his first day, Lavagna brought economic realism to the government of President Eduardo Duhalde. Unfortunately for him, realism's opposite, economic nationalism, is on the rise in the legislature.
. . .
ARGENTINA
Bonex gets strike two: The government of Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde has abandoned plans to convert frozen savings accounts into bonds, reports Bloomberg. The news service attributes the withdrawl to the banks unwillingness to back the bonds, or any part thereof, with their own assets.The government's unwillingness to meet the banks' demands is a setback for international firms such as Spain's Banco Santander Central Hispano SA that have said they may abandon Argentine units unless the government changes policies and allows them to resume normal business. Government limits on bank withdrawals have stifled an economy already in its fourth year of recession and left banks, already short of cash because of Argentina's debt default and devaluation, unable to perform most transactions or provide credit. Setback for the banks? The release of trapped savings is a key demand of the IMF, on the government. It is one of four measures that have been strongly backed by the Duhalde government since its near death experience in late April. Only one--revision of the inflation index--has been approved, and that by decree. The others besides Bonex--repeal of the economic subversion law, revision of the bankruptcy law--are tied up in the Legislature. And today, the leader of the opposition Radicals in the Senate announced that they will not vote for the repeal of the law of economic subversion, reports the Télam news agency.
This is Bonex's second defeat. The last time, it led to the resignation of former economy minister Jorge Remes Lenicov. His successor Roberto Lavagna is not disposed to resign--yet. For now,President Eduardo Duhalde said the government was studying a plan to give depositors government real estate and other property in exchange for their savings. El Sur also reviewed this situation yesterday.
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COLOMBIA
Review and outlook: The Washington Post reviews the state of the war in Colombia and prospects for the future with the administration of Andres Pastrana almost a an end.The state of Colombian democracy might be summed up like this: The FARC holds hostage one of the four other presidential candidates, five members of Congress, 11 state legislators and a provincial governor. The AUC meanwhile claims to have elected dozens of candidates in the congressional elections held in March and has killed a few it didn't like. This Jackson Diehl column is very tough.
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Sunday, May 12, 2002
COLOMBIA
FARC strategy: According to El Tiempo, Colombian analysts of the current state of the guerilla war say that the FARC is employing a two-pronged approach in their current offensive.
First, the article says, the guerilla army is attempting to engage the Colombian United Self-Defense Forces (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia, or AUC), while avoiding direct combat with the army.I see clearly that the strategy is to elude the army and directly confront the 'paras,'" affirmed (ex-guerilla and analyst León) Valencia "Veo claro que la estrategia es eludir al Ejército y enfrentar directamente a los 'paras,'" afirma Valencia. The idea is to recapture territories lost to the AUC during the past decade and especially while the FARC was confined in a protected area in sourthcentral Colombia during peace talks (the provinces of Caquetá, Meta, Putumayo and Guaviare).The major effect of the paramilitaries' advance in the last five years, besides making the FARC and the ELN (a second, smaller guerilla group) fall back, was to strangle the corridors through which they could move," assured the social investigator Javier Naranjo. "La mayor efectividad de la avanzada paramilitar en los últimos cinco años, además de hacer replegar a las Farc y al Eln, fue ir estrangulando los corredores por donde estos se movían," asegura el investigador social Javier Naranjo.
Second, FARC is attempting to bring the conflict to the urban population and their associated infrastructure, with attacks that are spectacular and, they hope, demoralizing, but that can be carried out by relatively little resources.In the last two months, the confrontation between these two irregular armies (FARC and AUC) has been intense. Nevertheless, as their combat has occurred in rural areas very distant and inaccessible, little of them has registered. Moreover, the offenses in the cities have stolen all the space in the communications media. En los últimos dos meses, la confrontación entre estos dos ejércitos irregulares ha sido intensa. Sin embargo, como los combates se han producido en áreas rurales muy distantes e inaccesibles, poco se ha registrado de ellos. Además, los atentados en las ciudades se han robado todo el espacio en los medios de comunicación. Although the spectacular urban bombings and kidnappings (including of a presidential candidate and several elected officials) dominate the news, El Tiempo's analysts believe the guerilla's major emphasis is on taking territory in the north.Three specific zones appear to be the immediate objectives of "operation return" of the FARC, Urabá, central Magdelena province and the Catatumbo area. Tres zonas concretas parecen ser los objetivos inmediatos de esta 'operación retorno' de las Farc: Urabá, el Magdalena Medio y la zona del Catatumbo. Looking at the map of the Colombian northeast, it is easy to note that the sweeping operation against the AUC from central Magdelena to the east, complemented the one that rises from Chocó to Urabá, completing formation of an enormous mobilization corridor, using the north of Antioquia. Observando el mapa del noroccidente colombiano es fácil notar que una operación de barrido contra las Auc desde el Magdalena Medio hacia el occidente, complementada con una que suba desde el Chocó hasta Urabá, terminaría formando un enorme corredor de movilización, aprovechando el norte de Antioquia. Given the FARC's strategic aims, El Tiempo's analysts agree that prospect is for more hard fighting."What happened at Bojayá (Chocó) with its 119 civilians massacred, is only a reflection of what is is coming for the communities that are going to be in the middle of this fight," insisted an analyst at the National University who asks that his name be withheld. "Lo de Bojayá (Chocó) con sus 119 civiles masacrados, es solamente un reflejo de lo que se viene para las comunidades que van a quedar en la mitad de esa lucha," asegura un analista de la Universidad Nacional que pide reserva de su nombre.
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COLOMBIA
Another FARC atrocity: The army has recovered the bodies of nine soldiers kidnapped and murdered by the communist guerilla army FARC, reports El Tiempo.
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VENEZUELA
Back to the streets Venezuela's opposition took to the streets of Caracas to remember the 17 people killed last month during demonstrations against President Hugo Chávez, reports the Financial TimesAmid a boisterous sea of flags and banners, protesters, many wearing black armbands, demanded a new president and justice for those who died when gunmen opened fire during the April 11 anti-government rally that sparked the coup. On the other hand... Also on Saturday, hundreds of supporters of the left-wing president held a memorial rally and called on investigators to punish those they say backed the coup. "We want them to pay because they violated the constitution and violated the rights of the people," said Gladys Delgado, an assistant music director.
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ARGENTINA
Update: The government of President Eduardo Duhalde hit a low point about three weeks ago. The Senate refused to consider a plan to convert the money trapped in frozen savings accounts into bonds--releasing this money being one of the primary requirements for aid from the International Monetary Fund. Frustrated, Economic Minister Jorge Remes Lenicov resigned, leading to a week-long search for a successor and a series of meetings between Duhalde and his primary constituency, nation's Peronist state governors.
At that juncture, Duhalde faced two decisions: 1) either try to stay until the end of his (really Fernando De La Rúa's) term in 2003, or call early elections; 2) attempt--seriously--to meet the IMF's conditions, or start down the road of economic nationalism and populism.
The decision not to call early elections was relatively easy, and was announced at the meeting, amidst some grumbling from the governors. Duhalde clearly did not want to leave office with his place in history dictated solely by his record as president so far.
His second decision was less easy, there being immediate popularity to be gained in Argentina by blaming someone else. Still, it has become apparent in the weeks following the summit with Peronist governors that Duhalde is totally committed to meeting the IMF's requirements. First, he named a new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, who sought and received assurances that the government would do whatever was needed to get aid. Since then, Duhalde has attempted to gain passage--or enact by decree--all of the IMF's preferred measures, including revision of the country's inflaction indexing scheme (to prevent a rapid wage/price spiral), repeal of the economic subversion law to (which has been used to harass business people), revision of the bankruptcy law (to better protect creditors) and conversion of funds trapped into savings accounts into bonds (to get the financial system functioning again).
Duhalde has found it difficult to get these items through the Legislature, however. The most recent example: Clarin reports that the plan to convert frozen savings into bonds appears to have failed. The government wanted banks to help guarantee the bonds; the bankers wanted compensation.
Even as these measures are still being considered, opposition--based in economic nationalism--is rising. During last Wednesday's National Assembly debate over bankruptcy reform, for example, Alicia Castro, an assembly member and leader of the left-wing Front for Change--Frente para el Cambio--unfurled and American flag and placed on the desk of the president of the assembly. Images of this event, which created a storm in the body, from La Nacion are here and here.
And the main frontpage story in today's Pagina/12 is an attack on the United States and the IMF. Here are some subheads:Surge in new anti-imperialism? Is the anti-American sentiment deep? Is there a plan iin Washington to destroy the country. Has a nationalism been born here after the discussion of the laws of bankruptcy and ecnomic subversion? ¿Surgió un nuevo antiimperialismo? ¿El sentimiento antinorteamericano es profundo? ¿Hay un plan de Washington para destruir el país? Ha nacido aquí un nacionalismo después de la discusión de las leyes de Quiebras y Subversión Económica? Duhalde is in a tight spot, as was pointed out in El Sur on May 3. Even if he succeeds in pleasing the IMF and getting funds, it would most likely be just about enough to keep current with past IMF loans, plus a bit for social relief. This would not be enough to launch the economic turnaround, the promist of which has been implicit in the government's strategy since Duhalde took control in January. All in all, tough and getting tougher. Look for early elections. Then look for a left wing victory.
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Friday, May 10, 2002
COLOMBIA
Uribe update: The Financial Times reports on the Colombian presidential election (scheduled for May 26) and the clear frontrunner Alvaro Uribe.
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ARGENTINA
Banks want out; savers want money: Worried that foreign banks are going to close and leave the country, Argentine savers are trying even harder (if that's possible) to get their money out while they can, reports Bloomberg . "People are acting on rumors,'' said Mirta Lancelle, a spokeswoman for Banco Sudameris Argentina SA. "The bank will open normally Monday and all our cash machines are full.'' Worries were stimulated when the Bank of Nova Scotia (Canada's fourth-largest) announced it planned to sell its Argentine subsidiary (the country's 11th-largest bank).
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CUBA
No bugs here! Fidel Castro personally went on government TV (there is no other kind) to deny that his government is developing biological weapons, reports Yahoo! News - AP. In an additional protest of the U.S. official's allegations, the Cuban government has called out more than 100,000 people for a Saturday morning rally in a Havana suburb to denounce Washington's "fallacies." What fun!
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CUBA
Cuba referendum requested: Reuters reports thatA group of Cuban dissidents on Friday handed in an unprecedented petition backed by 11,000 signatures calling for a national referendum to reform the country's one-party communist system. A provision in the constitution permits this. Castro's government dismisses the effor as a "plot." Former President Jimmy Carter is due in two days. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, he has to say about this.
Yahoo! News - AP also has a report.
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VENEZUELA
Governor issues warning: Henrique Salas Feo, governor of the state of Carabobo, warned of an effort to weaken the army (Fuerza Armada Nacional) and strengthen the Bolivarian Circles, reports El Universal. Salas Feo called the Bolivarian Circles "'Circles of Death' and said 'one must stop them from strengthening. These groups are intended to intimidate and to make civil society fearful'" ("'Círculos de la Muerte' y dijo que 'hay que detener su fortalecimiento. Estos grupos son para amedrentar y hacer que la sociedad civil tenga temor'").
Referring to the newly installed commander of Fort Paramacay, who the governor believed is inadequate, Salas Feo said thatAs he judged it, this designation forms part of the weakening of the FAN that, combined with the strengthening of the circles of death, taking us to a grave security problem." "A su juicio esta designación forma parte del 'debilitamiento de la FAN que, combinado con el fortalecimiento de los círculos de la Muerte, nos está llevando es a un problema gravísimo de seguridad."
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ARGENTINA
Possible future: The Latin Business Chronicle presents a scenario, leading to dollarization.
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COLOMBIA
FARC closes churches: The FARC has closed 10 protestant churches in Arauquita, Arauca province, reports El Tiempo"They told us only that we will close our churches, but they did not threaten us nor tell us what it was they held against us, for which we will prefir to remain prudent in this case," stated the wife of a pastor of (one of) said congregation(s). "Ellos nos dijeron únicamente que cerráramos nuestras iglesias, pero no nos amenazaron ni nos dijeron que iban a atentar contra nosotros, por lo que preferimos guardar prudencia en este caso", precisó la esposa de un pastor de dicha congregación. The 2,000 adherents to these temples now meet at night in small houses to conduct their ceremonies in limited space after the FARC, via various communications, have prohibited the sects. Los 2.000 devotos que acudían a estos templos se reúnen ahora en las noches en pequeñas casas para realizar sus ceremonias en espacios limitados después de que las Farc, a través de varios comunicados, prohibieran los cultos. It is with profound pain that I lament that this is succeeding because the people that say they are friends of the people are actually their enemies. They (the FARC) are not transforming the country, they are destroying it with this form of activity," said the leader of the missionary movement, Juan Carlos Monsalve. "Con profundo dolor lamento lo que está sucediendo porque esas personas que dicen ser amigas del pueblo están actuando como sus enemigos. Ellos (las Farc) no están transformando el país, lo están destruyendo con su forma de actuar," expresó el líder del Movimiento Misionero, Juan Carlos Monsalve. Leaders of the churches are seeking the support of the International Red Cross. They believe they are being attacked for supporting presidential candidate Alvaro Uribe Vélez, which they deny, saying they are not interested in politics.Martha Parales, of the Foursquare Church of Arauquita, insisted that those who congregate in the churches are humble people that do not merit this fate because their only objective is to praise God in order to pray for peace and unity in community. Martha Parales, de la Iglesia Cuadrangular de Arauquita, insistió que quienes se congregan en las iglesias son personas humildes que no merecen esta suerte porque su único objetivo es alabar a Dios para orar por la paz e integrarse en comunidad. Arauca is in eastern Colombia, along the border with Venezuela.
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COLOMBIA
Better late than never: It's a week late, but finally one mainstream media provider has noticed that the European Union has spefically refused to call Colombia's FARC communist guerillas a terrorist group. That media provider is the press service United Press International.The Colombian guerrillas who fired gas cylinders filled with explosives into a crowded church Friday were not terrorists, at least not in the eyes of the European Union. Nor, according to the EU, was it a terrorist group who left the booby-trapped corpse of a teenage boy outside a Colombian army base last weekend. In the week since leaving Colombia's largest rebel groups off its list of terrorist organizations, the EU has provoked outrage and despair in the war-torn country over the message it believes the move sends to militants, citizens and international community alike. The EU's failure was noted last weekend in several posts in El Sur. Also noted in El Sur was that it was mainly the Swedes--and secondarily the French (see El Sur) who prevented the European Union from admitting the obvious. Unfortunately, UPI did not see fit to point out the culprits.Now that UPI has the story, perhaps it will appear in the papers.
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COLOMBIA
Pre-election interview In the run up to the May 26 presidential election, United Press International interviews Francisco Santos, vice presidential candidate on the Alvaro Uribe ticket. Uribe and Santos lead their nearest competitor by about 20 points. Uribe has campaigned on getting tougher with guerillas of both the right and left."Colombia is in its worst situation in 100 years," Santos told reporters in Washington following his week-long visit to the United States, adding that ending civil conflict and restoring social stability would top the agenda for the independent presidential candidate. "We will cut Congress's budget by half ... and get rid of all the useless spending by the government," Santos said, adding that far too much public money was spent to ensure the privileges of politicians and the upper classes.
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Thursday, May 09, 2002
ARGENTINA
A native's lament: Fernando Gonzalez, a native of Argentina (and, based on certain contextual clues, a leftist) reports on the sad state of Argentina today, in the May 8
Washington Post. Excellent and very sad.
The specific examples Gonzalez cites are verified by blogger T.L. Wilson (treasaigh.com), who lives there. Wilson wants electoral reform and no IMF/U.S. aid until it happens:The only solution to the problem is the deletion of the political class. There is only one way to do this and that is a complete overhaul of the electoral laws. The Catch 22 is that the only ones that can overhaul electoral laws are the members of the political class (or perhaps the Justices... but they are peas of the same pod)...It is imperative that the IMF and the US stick to their guns and insist on meaningful reform before they give this "pathetic, buffoonish and sometimes larcenous political class" another cent.
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VENEZUELA
Active military polled: A report of a second poll, this conducted among active-duty military, appears toward the end of the story in El Nacional noted in the previous post. The inquiry was conducted in public places and the street near military barracks, between May 4 and 6 in Caracas, Maracay and Maracaibo. Questioned were active military, who are registered to vote. Interviewed for Cifras Encuestadora C.A. (a polling and public opinion firm) were 473 members of all branches of the military--army, navy, air force and national guard. According to the study, 60.3% of those interviewed agree that it would be a good idea to hold a referendum to religitimate public authorities. More than 60 per cent believe that the activation of Plan Avila by Hugo Chávez was either a very bad idea or a bad idea. Plan Avila is the military's plan to defend the presidential palace, national legislature and other public buildings from insurrection. It's activation on April 11 was the proximate cause of the military command's decision to oust Chávez.
Here is the Cifras homepage.
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VENEZUELA
Chávez gets lift: Hugo Chávez's brief dismissal and quick return increased his support among the Venezuala's public, reports El Nacional. The Caracas paper has results of a poll of 800 Venezuelans questioned at the end of April.
Highlights of the poll include:* Chávez's popularity increased from 34.4 to 44.7 per cent; * the number of strong Chávez supporters ("votos duros") increased from 17.8 to 28.4; * the number of strong Chávez opponents ("críticos duros") fell from 48.8 to 43.9 per cent. * 56 per cent believe the April 11 uprising was not spontaneous, but the result of a conspiracy. Not all the results were positive for Chávez however. One of four respondents consider Chávez directly responsible for the deaths that took place during the April 11 demonstration that preceeded his ouster. Another 11.9 per cent blame the Bolivarian Circles, while 10.8 per cent blame interim President Pedro Carmona.
By way of explaning Chávez's resurgence, El Nacional reports:The expert (Luis Vicente León, who directed the poll) indicated that there are emotional factors that produced this change in the people's evaluation of the President: a certain air of the martyr, united with a triumph (his recovery of power); this without regard for the negative image that was left by those who created the interim government and committed many errors. El experto (Luis Vicente León, director de la encuestadora), indica que hay factores emocionales que producen este cambio en la evaluación de la gente hacia el Presidente: un cierto aire de mártir, unido a un triunfo (recuperó el poder); ello sin contar la pésima imagen que dejaron quienes integraron el gobierno interino y cometieron cantidades de errores. According to the poll, the principal opposition spokesman now is Alfredo Peña, mayor of greater Caracas, with 22.8 per cent; he is followed by the leader of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela, Carlos Ortega, with 15 per cent.
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Wednesday, May 08, 2002
COLOMBIA
U.S. calls FARC terrorist: El Tiempo notes that, in contrast with the EU, the U.S. believes the FARC is a terrorist organization.The Ambassador of the United States in Colombia, Anne Patterson, assured that the massacre in the municipality of Bojayá confirms that the rebeles meret this classification. La embajadora de Estados Unidos en Colombia, Anne Patterson, aseguró que la masacre en el poblado de Bojayá confirma que los rebeldes sí merecen ese calificativo. Previous comment from El Sur can be found here:El Sur, May 6;
El Sur, May 6;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5;
El Sur, May 5.
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COLOMBIA
European Union shamed? The European Union sent its condolences to Colombia for the massacre by the communist guerilla group FARC of more than 100 people, including 45 children, in Bojayá, Chocó, Colombia. According to El Espectador:The European Union (EU) issued yesterday "its most firm condemnation of the violations of human rights and of the International Human Rights that the armed groups" perpetrated on the civilian population in Bojayá last Thursday. La Unión Europea (UE) manifestó ayer “su más firme condena a las violaciones de los Derechos Humanos y del Derecho Internacional Humanitario que los grupos armados” perpetraron contra la población civil en Bojayá el jueves pasado. Note that plural, "armed groups," though it was only FARC that shelled the church.As to the terrorist list, the EU explained that implied is a continuous process of periodic revision "that could start, in this case, the inclusion of other persons and entities on said list," as is the case of the FARC in the next revision, that will have to occur at the end of the current month. En cuanto a la lista de terroristas, la UE explicó que ésta implica un continuo proceso de revisión periódica “que podría originar, en su caso, la inclusión de otras personas y otras entidades en dicha lista,” como es el caso de las Farc en la próxima revisión, que tendrá lugar a finales del presente mes. We shall see.
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MEXICO
Key municipal electon: CSIS Hemisphere Focus (Center For Strategic & International Studies) has an interesting report on the election for Mayor of Ciudad Juárez, the capital of the state of Chihuahua, located just across the border from El Paso, Tx. The election (a rerun of a race annulled last year) is seen as a test for upcoming state and municipal elections throughout Mexico and a "mini-referendum" on the tenure of President Vicente Fox.
Most important, the candidate of the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party, Mexico's long time ruling party), Roberto Barraza Jordán, has formed an electoral alliance with three minor parties in the state, including the PRD (Democratic Revolutionary Party, a left-wing breakaway from the PRI) which is not so minor in much of Mexico.A Barraza triumph as a coalition candidate would embolden PRI politicians, who once enjoyed the luxury of standing alone, to explore other alliances. For instance, a pact with the PRD could yield defeats of the PAN in states like Sonora and Querétaro in mid-2003. The PAN (National Action Party) is the middle-class, conservative, Catholic party that elected Vicente Fox as the first non-PRI President in 2000.
Indeed, over time success of a PRI-PRD coalition could lead to the reunification of the parties over time, which would push Mexican politics in a strongly anti-American, leftward direction.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2002
VENEZUELA
Carmona interview: The Latin Business Chronicle has an interview with Pedro Carmona, the former president of Venezuela's business confederation, Fedecamaras, and the man who replaced Hugo Chávez for a little more than a day during April. Carmona, who is under house arrest, was interviewed by the paper by phone.
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ARGENTINA
Real estate: An article from Yahoo! News - AP illustrates another dimension of Argentina's slow-motion financial collapse."For over two months, we didn't close a single sale," he (Paul A. Reynolds of JR Reynolds, an upmarket realtor) said. "Thank goodness we managed to pick up the slack with the rentals business. "There's no response to the lower prices because there's no cash available. All the money is tied into the banking system and there's no credit to be had." So even wealthier home owners are opting to rent out their apartments and are looking for leases on smaller, cheaper ones. According to (Enrique) Colautti (of Associated Realtors in Extinction), the crisis has put more than a quarter of the country's 25,000 realtors out of business, meaning 40,000 lost jobs. The knock-on effect for the moribund construction and building supplies industry has been disastrous, he said, estimating some 1.8 million workers--90 percent of the sector's workforce--are idle. But the scariest part is buried near the end:"We're as busy as we've ever been," said Cliff Williams, Transpack's (a shipper and removal company) managing director, adding that in addition to more repatriations by multinationals that are scaling — or closing — down Argentine operations, shipping inquiries from individual Argentines have "skyrocketed." "The emigration business of Argentines packing up and leaving has suddenly become more significant for us," he said. "It's going to take a long time to restore confidence and our government is to blame for that."
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VENEZUELA
Gun Control: Venezuela's new Minister of the Interior and Justice Diosdado Cabello, who is in charge of the national police, proposes to disarm the public (desarme de la población civil), reports El Universal. According to Cabello, "It is a plan to disarm the entire civilian population and not only the Bolivarian circles..." "Es un plan de desarme de toda la población civil y no solamente de los círculos bolivarianos..." Bolivarian circles are pro-Chávez neighborhood groups. Opponents liken them to the Cuban block committees that enforce political conformity, a correspondence supporters deny. Cabello is a Chávez loyalist and, until a couple weeks ago, was vice president. As vice president he founded and coordinated the Bolivarian circles.It is not known if the coordination of the Bolivarian circles will continue with Diosdado Cabello in the post of Interior and Justice or will return to the ministry of the Secretary (of the Presidency) with the naming of Nelson merentes as head. Se deconoce si la coordinación de los círculos bolivarianos seguirá con Diosdado Cabello en el despacho del Interior y Justicia o regresarán al ministerio de la Secretaría con el nombramiento de Nelson Merentes como titular.
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Monday, May 06, 2002
VENEZUELA
The real Chávez: The Hugo Chávez who returned to power advocating conciliation and national dialogue is beginning to disappear. The new Hugo Chávez appears to be pointing out enemies as a way of laying the basis for authoritarianism.
Exhibit A is an item from the May 4 Washington Post in which Chávez describes without proof, a nebulous plot by the United States. He begins saying that the April 11 march "was the culmination of a plot hatched last year with the help of foreign sponsors to end his three-year presidency." He goes on:As evidence, the president talked for the first time about an alleged plan to assassinate him. Chavez said he was vacationing with his family in Barinas province in western Venezuela when he received a phone call from his foreign minister, Luis Alfonso Davila, on Jan. 1 telling him to return to Caracas immediately. When he arrived, Chavez said, Davila told him that a man from a Central American country had appeared at the Venezuelan Embassy in San Jose, Costa Rica. Chavez said the man told Venezuelan officials that he was a mercenary who had been training with perhaps a dozen other men in a Central American country for a mission scheduled for this year. The men had gathered in San Jose to await an American member of the team, who over drinks on New Year's Eve said, "Chavez is done. He doesn't know what's coming." "This was when the guy discovered what mission he was a part of," Chavez said. "And this mission had all the parts we saw on that day [April 11] -- sharpshooters, street violence. This guy said that the plan was to take advantage of public protests, to draw blood and end my presidency." Chavez refused to provide further details of the alleged assassination plot, including what country the informant was from or where he is now. He said he did not know whether the American was a government official or a private mercenary. In the Post article Chávez also raises again (without actually making) the charge that there were military ships and planes off the Venezuelan coast during his short-lived removal. These and other charges against the administration will be reviewed in upcoming U.S. Senate hearings, conducted by Sen. Christopher Dodd (D.-Conn.), who is hostile to the administration's Latin American policy and especially its point man, Otto Reich, who earned Dodd's enmity by supporting the the Nicaraguan Contras against the Sandanistas in the 1980s. It is probable that something close to the truth will emerge from hearings, and that the truth will be that the U.S. did not help or encourage the removal of Hugo Chávez. This need not disturb Chávez, however. He can be sure his supporters will judge the American process as they do their own national political bodies and believe what they want to believe.
Exhibit B is the testimony of the ex-Minister of the Interior and Justice Ramón Rodríguez Chacín before the National Assembly's investigative commission, as reported in El Nacional. He...accused Venezuelan "owners of great fortunes related to the international bank," members of Opus Dei and political parties, of having been the intellectual authors of the coup de etat against President Chávez. The ex-minister indicated that these actors continue conspiringsince "they did not go out of public view" April 11 ...acusó a venezolanos "dueños de grandes fortunas relacionados con la banca internacional," miembros del Opus Dei y de partidos políticos, de haber sido los autores intelectuales del golpe de Estado contra el presidente Chávez. El ex ministro sostiene que estos actores siguen conspirando pues "no salieron a la luz pública" el 11 abril. The primary reference here is to Gustavo Cisneros, billionaire owner of the Cisneros Group of Companies, a media empire that includes the Venevision TV channel. Newsweek, prominently, has suggested Cisneros' involvement in planning to turn the April 11 demonstration into the pretext for a coup. The company takes the charge seriously enough to respond by linking to a half-dozen items disputing the charge on the Cisneros Group of Companies website. Again, while the truth matters, the charge--true or not--also matters. An article on Rodríguez Chacín's testimony also appears in El Universal.
The obvious purpose of all this is to create fear--of prosecution, assault, expropriation--in his opponents and to energize his supporters. Chávez no longer has a popular majority among Venezuelans; a poll published in El Universal, showing that only 21 per cent of Venezuelans have confidence in Chávez, was reported El Sur April 24. The intensity and anger of Chávez's supporters can compensate for the fact that they are a minority, especially if the majority can be simultaneously intimidated. Still, Chávez has a very big problem that this strategy cannot overcome. That is this: Ultimately Chávez's statist, populist policies will deliver frustration, not growth, employment and prosperity. Adding political intimidation doesn't improve Venezuela's prospects.
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COLOMBIA
FARC kills 100+, U.N. blames government: The death toll in from the FARC attack on a church filled with people fleeing fighting between the FARC communist guerillas and the AUC rightist militia in Bojayá, Colombia, has reached 110, reports Yahoo! News - AP.
As far as the United Nations is concerned it's all the fault of the Colombian government. U.N. officials said they warned the government that a tragedy was about to occur before the fighting started. "It's lamentable that the government authorities ignored the early warning," the United Nations said in a prepared statement. The U.N. statement doesn't say what exactly the government was supposed to do with the warning. Bojayá is remote and reachable only by air or river. It took Colombian army units hours to get there after the incident. Even had the army arrived beforehand, it's not certain that a third armed force in the neighborhood would have helped. Moreover, the single fact that needs to be kept in mind is that it was the FARC that fired a gas tank loaded with high explosives into a church in which civilians had sought refuge.
To the U.N. these are details. What's really important is to maintain that there are "no enemies to the left."
. . .
COLOMBIA
Editorial comment on Europe and the FARC:
From El Tiempo:The European countries ought to help close the fence around the FARC and the ELN (another leftist guerilla army), instead of contributing to loosening it. Los países europeos deberían ayudar a cerrar el cerco sobre las Farc y el Eln, en lugar de contribuir a aflojarlo. The debatable decision, assessed in Brussles as a lamentable diplomatic gaffe, has put in evidence the division that exists in the EU over terrorism. France and Sweden put an obstacle in front of the proposal of Belgium and Spain to include in the black list the FARC and ELN, with the argument that the inclusion would put an obstacle in the way of future political negotiations with these groups, which prevented arrival at consensus. This is something very debatable if one considers that the label (terrorist) assigned by the State Department to the FARC, already hung on them in 1999, did not impede the abortive process of the Caguán with this group. Behind the European position there are at times pragmatic motivations, such as the purchase of a kind of security against the kidnapping of their citizens or the maintenance of channels in order "to negotiate" for kidnap victims, a practice that the NGO Pax Christi has condemned because of its results, in an attempt to pressure to the leaders of this continent to make the payment of ransoms illegal. La discutible decisión, calificada en Bruselas como un lamentable gaffe diplomático, ha puesto en evidencia la división que existe en la UE frente al terrorismo. A la propuesta de Bélgica y España de incluir en la lista negra a las Farc y el Eln se le atravesaron Francia y Suecia, que impidieron que se llegara a un consenso con el argumento de que la inclusión podría obstaculizar una futura negociación política con esos grupos. Algo muy discutible si se considera que el rótulo asignado por el Departamento de Estado a las Farc, que ya lo colgaban en 1999, no impidió el malogrado proceso del Caguán con este grupo. Detrás de la posición europea hay tal vez motivaciones pragmáticas, como la compra de una especie de seguro contra el secuestro de sus ciudadanos o el mantenimiento de canales para 'negociar' secuestros, una práctica que por sus consecuencias ha condenado la conocida ONG Pax Christi, en busca de presionar a los gobiernos de ese continente para hacer ilegal el pago de rescates. But there is even more behind it, what appears to prevail in the EU is resistance to aligning with the United States in foreign policy. This was, with the exception of Spain, the European position with respect to Plan Colombia, which did not receive the support of the EU because it has United States sponsorship. Pero aún más que lo anterior, lo que parece prevalecer en la UE es la resistencia a alinearse así no más con Estados Unidos en su política exterior. Esa fue, con excepción de España, la posición europea respecto del Plan Colombia, que no recibió el respaldo de la UE por tener el auspicio estadounidense. Note that, in addition to Sweden, France was involved in keeping the FARC from being named as terrorists.
From Diario La Libertad (Barranquilla):The non-inclusion of the FARC on the part of the European Union on its list of terrorist groups shook the foundations of this democratic country, especially when its previous violence and disrespect for human rights have been repeated on an infinity of occasions by this subersive organization, the same as the other extremist associations that operate in Colombia. The government and other social sectors are right to have spoken about such an exception, forgetting the pain of thousands of compatriots that have been made victims of the criminal action of these groups acting at the margin of the law. Conmovió los cimientos del país democrático la no inclusión de las Farc por parte de la Unión Europea en su lista de grupos terroristas internacionales, máxime cuando los antecedentes violentos y de irrespeto a los derechos humanos ha sido reiterativo en infinidad de ocasiones por esta organización subversiva, al igual que las otras asociaciones extremistas que operan en Colombia. Tienen razón el gobierno y demás sectores sociales que se han pronunciado en torno a tal excepción, olvidando el dolor de miles de compatriotas que han resultado víctimas del accionar criminal de estos grupos actuantes al margen de la ley. Well good, faced with such a political circumstance, the world can observe today the grateful response that the FARC has given for the classification of the EU, with its confrontation against the autodefense forces in the area of Chocó, with one payment of more than 60 deaths, the majority of them members of the civilian population, who facing a crossfire were attacked when they took refuge in the church of Bojayá. If to this is added the use of cylinder bombs, cadavers filled with explosives, links with the narcotics traffic, incursions into neighboring countries, one can collect more proofs of what the terrorists are about. As long as there is no international solidarity with the Colombian government in this sense, there will be more conceits and incentive for the army of terrorism. Pues bien, ante tal circunstancia política, el mundo puede observar hoy estupefacto la respuesta de agradecimiento que las Farc le está dando a la calificación de la UE, con su enfrentamiento contra las autodefensas en una zona del Chocó, con un saldo que supera los 60 muertos, la mayoría de ellos miembros de la población civil, quienes ante el fuego cruzado fueron atacados cuando se refugiaban en la iglesia de Bojayá. Si a ello se le agrega la utilización de cilindros-bomba, cadáveres cargados con explosivos, nexos con el narcotráfico, incursiones hacia los países vecinos, se puede colegir que más pruebas de su finalidad terrorista sobran. Mientras no haya solidaridad internacional con el gobierno colombiano en este sentido, habrá más ínfulas e incentivo para el ejercicio del terrorismo.
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VENEZUELA
Cabinet changes: President Hugo Chávez made four changes in the upper reaches of his government over the weekend. Together they indicate the direction Chávez intends to take as he attempts to recover from his brief dismissal. That is to press ahead with the populist measures that got him into trouble in the first place. The Financial Times details the changes:Appointed planning minister was economics professor Felipe Pérez, who is "likely to represent a continuation of key elements of economic policy," says The Financial Times. Appointed as finance minister was Tobías Nóbrega, "a competent economist who favours tighter controls on the banking sector" in the paper's words. Neither of these appointments represents any break with the past. Both will try to reconcile the rising expectations of Chávez supporters, emboldened by their hero's victory, and slow but progressive economic deterioration, evidenced by slowing growth, capital flight, a large budget deficit and increasingly skittish foreign investors.
In a different way, the other two appointments also reinforce the notion that any change in direction is rhetorical only. Appointed minister of the interior and justice was Diosdado Cabello. Cabello is a fierce Chávez loyalist and until recently was vice president. So, at first blush, he seems to be taking a demotion. But, in his new post he will be in charge of the federal police. This obviously will be a critical post in the next crisis, and their will be a next crisis, since Chávez term lasts until 2007 while the economy won't. Appointed defense minister was armed forces chief General Lucas Rincón. The Rincón is interesting because it was Rincón who, in the early hours of April 12, told the nation that Chávez had resigned. El Sur has a brief excerpt from Rincón's testimony before the National Assembly committee investigating the April 11-13 period in which he explains his role. El Sur also has excerpts of El Nacional's summary tape of made of Chávez in captivity, in which Rincón's name comes up in an ambiguous context. So what's going on here? Odds are Chávez is kicking Rincón upstairs, acting on the maxim "keep your friends close and you enemies closer."
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Sunday, May 05, 2002
COLOMBIA
Another FARC attack: El Universal (Caracas, Ve.) reports on a FARC assault on Rovira, a municipality in the Department of Tolima, Colombia. Their goal--bank robbery.The FARC attacked our village with the intention of robbing one of the banks of the municipality and caused all sorts of destruction during the more than eight hours of the incursion. Lamentably, a police officer was killed and two civilians were hurt during the events," declared the mayor of Rovira, Rubén Andrade, according to AFP. "Las FARC atacaron nuestro pueblo con la intención de robar uno de los bancos del municipio y causaron toda clase de destrozos durante las más de ocho horas de incursión. Lamentablemente un policía murió y dos civiles fueron heridos en los hechos," declaró el alcalde de Rovira, Rubén Andrade, citó AFP. Just one example. These occur every day. Always the FARC. Who are not terrorists, according to the European Union.
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COLOMBIA
U.S. press evenhanded between murders and victims:
Here's the U.S. perspective:
"60 in Colombia Are Said to Die During Battles," New York Times (requires sign up).
"38 Children Among Victims in Colombia, Latin America: As many as 98 civilians were killed in battle between rebels and paramilitaries. Los Angeles Times.
Here's the Colombian:
"Genocido en Chocó," Diario el Pais (Cali).
"Civiles no murieron por enfrentamiento, fue una masacre dice Pastrana," El Colombiano (Medellin)
"45 niños entre víctimas de masacre de Bojayá," El Espectador (Bogata).
Meanwhile, there's no hesitation in the U.S. press to call a terrorist whoever is putting bombs in mailboxes in the Midwest.
. . .
COLOMBIA
Alvaro Uribe Vélez profiled: Amidst all the mayhem, Colombia is conducting a presidential campaign; the election will be held May 26. The Colombian frontrunner is profiled in today's Miami Herald: Leftist rebels want to kill him, and they've already tried. Why do rebels want Uribe dead? The same reason most Colombians want him to be president--because he pledges to boost the military, double the size of the police force, and bring an authoritarian stance to bear against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), leftist guerrillas who have waged war here for 38 of Uribe's 49 years. He says he will fund the new and improved armed forces by launching his own offenses against government corruption, superfluous spending and tax dodging. And after three years of peace talks during which Colombians watched the FARC boost its troops, arsenal, drug stash and horde of kidnapping victims, surveys show Colombians think Uribe is the answer. He is the antithesis of current president Andrés Pastrana, whose relentless negotiations with the guerrillas ended abruptly Feb. 20. Colombians are tired of peace talks. They want action against the wave of bombings and killings plaguing their coffee- and coca-rich nation. For now, it seems they want Uribe, a hard-liner with a history of championing both social programs and civilian security squads. Uribe is a life-long politician and dissident Liberal Party member whose own father was murdered in 1983--allegedly in a botched FARC kidnapping attempt. In April polling, Uribe approached the 50 per cent needed to avoid a run-off and lead his nearest opponent by more than 20 points. When he's elected, the Swedes will no doubt want him declared the terrorist.
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COLOMBIA
It's the Swedes: According to El Tiempo, it's mainly the Swedes who were behind the European Union's refusal to call the FARC what it is, a terrorist organization.Another source reconfirmed that the original plan was to include the FARC as well as the paramilitaries (AUC). The majority of the European foreign ministries considered that the guerilla group is primarily responsible for the collapse of the peace process with the Pastrana administration. And facts like the kidnapping of Ingred Betancourt--among other attacks on the civil population--have weakened its image in the Old World, including among the ONG that before defended them "tooth and nail." Nevertheless, this all was ruined when reserves were expressed about the effect classifying the FARC as a terrorist group would have on the essence of the doctrine of the European Union in relation with Colombia, which can be summarized as: "the unique possbile end to the conflict is dialogue and political negotiation, and Europe will do everything possible to help produce that and overcome all difficulties. Sweden has been one of the countries most active in the recent peace process, in its territory it functions as the agency of notice to the FARC (Anncol) and significant sectors of opinion consider that the fight of the FARC is not terrorist but of liberation (emphasis added). Otra fuente reconfirmó que el plan original era incluir tanto a las Farc como a los paramilitares. La mayoría de las cancillerías europeas considera que el grupo guerrillero es el gran responsable del fracaso del proceso de paz con la administración Pastrana. Y hechos como el secuestro de Ingrid Betancourt--entre otros ataques a la población civil--han debilitado enormemente su imagen en el Viejo Continente, incluso entre las ONG que antes los defendían a "capa y espada." Sin embargo, todo se hundió cuando expresó sus reservas sobre el efecto que podría tener el calificar a las Farc de grupo terrorista sobre la esencia de la doctrina de la Unión Europea en relación con Colombia, y que se puede resumir así: "la única salida posible al conflicto es el diálogo y la negociación política, y Europa hará todo lo posible para ayudar a que este se produzca y llegue a buen puerto." Suecia ha sido uno de los países más activos en el reciente proceso de paz, en su territorio funciona la agencia de noticias de las Farc (Anncol) y sectores significativos de opinión consideran que la lucha de las Farc no es terrorista sino de liberación. This irresponsible and dishonest decision has received far to little coverage in the press outside of Colombia. Probably because most editors and reporters share the fundamental world view behind it: "no enemies to the left."
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COLOMBIA
FARC kills 45 children: The death toll in the FARC bombing in Bojayá, Chocó, Colombia has reached 108, reports El Espectador. Of the dead 45 were children, killed in a church. El Tiempo has a photo of a grieving family.
To repeat: The European Union just last week refused to include the FARC on a list of terrorist organization.
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VENEZUELA
Lucas Rincón testifies: General Lucas Rincón testified before the National Assembly's commissionn reviewing the events of April 11-13. It was Rincón who announced that Chávez had resigned. A report is in El Universal.
Essentially, Rincón's story is that he was not himself plotting to remove Chávez, but acted against Chávez to avoid a four-way civil war among his military and civilian allies and opponents."I am convinced that what was the fundamental was to avoid the spilling of blood, and more, a civil war," said the commander in chief explaining why, in the early morning of April 12, he announced to the country that the President Chávez had agreed to resign. "Estoy convencido de que fui factor fundamental para evitar el derramamiento de sangre y, a lo mejor, una guerra civil," dijo el comandante en jefe al explicar por qué, la madrugada del 12 de abril, le anunció al país que el presidente Chávez había aceptado la renuncia. Rincón suggests that he mediated some sort of agreement between Chávez and his military opponents, which permitted a conditioned resignation, and announced it, but that both sides later backed out.I told him (Chávez) that if what was materializing did occur there would be a confrontation and we could not imagine the consequences. Mr. President told me "I don't want bloodshed, not even one drop." We had information that there was a machine gun at Miraflores and that tanks would arrive. Then I gave him an approach to calming the situation. What we have here is a coup and it will not be a confrontation between military units but among civilians as well. I spoke of the resignation that was asked of him. This was in order to see if it quieted the situation. The President told be that he would always examine such a request and when it conformed with the Constitution and they complied with certain guarantees.....Afterward, I called again. The situation is worse. The officials gestured to me and asked me "when are you going to speak?" Then I told him that I would take the liberty of announcing the request...At this time, the coup plotters (golpistas() had accepted Chávez's conditions....I permitted myself to draft with my own hand the text that announced it with all responsibility in order to avoid a confrontation...It was a moral approach....After my conversation, the coup plotters denied the conditions and Mr. President he refused to resign." Le dije que si esto se materializa iba a haber un enfrentamiento y nos podemos imaginar las consecuencias. El señor Presidente me dijo 'no quiero derramamiento de sangre, ni siquiera una gota'. Teníamos información de que iban a ametrallar Miraflores y llevarían tanques. Entonces le hice el planteamiento para calmar la situación. Aquí lo que hay es un golpe y no será un enfrentamiento entre militares sino entre civiles también. Le hablé de la renuncia que se le solicitaba. Eso era para ver si se tranquilizaba la situación. El Presidente me dijo que estudiaría esa solicitud siempre y cuando estuviera apegada a la Constitución y se cumplieran ciertas garantías... Después volví a llamar. La situación está peor. Los oficiales me manoteaban y me preguntaban '¿cuándo va a hablar?'. Entonces le dije que me tomaría la libertad de anunciar la solicitud... En ese momento, los golpistas habían aceptado las condiciones de Chávez... Me permití redactar a mano el texto que anuncié con toda responsabilidad para evitar el enfrentamiento... Fue un planteamiento moral... Posteriormente a mi conversación, los golpistas negaron las condiciones y el señor Presidente se negó a renunciar." The questions of opposition legislators were directed at showing that Chávez initiated his ouster when he activated Plan Avila, El Universal says.
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Saturday, May 04, 2002
ARGENTINA
"Argentina's albatross is Péron?s legacy." So says blogger treasaigh, in a beautiful short editorial that ends this way:The man that has the will and the political clout to undo the wrongs that have been perpetrated on it has yet to step forward. Until he (or she) does the IMF and other world bodies are correct in not giving the corrupt and inefficient rulers of this country another cent.
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Friday, May 03, 2002
ARGENTINA
Duhalde in trouble: Last week President Eduardo Duhalde spent several days finding a new economy minister, getting the provincial governors to agree to a 14-point plan, containing items needed before the IMF will even consider aid, and--not least--saved his presidency. One week later, things look almost as tough as before.
1. The cabinet reshuffle didn't work. Reviewing the new members, two with union backgrounds, the English language Buenos Aires Herald says:Duhalde's new ministers neither offer a younger or more federal Cabinet nor even help to guarantee the 14 points agreed with provincial governors only 10 days ago. Yet none of the above seems to matter to Duhalde--his main aim was to boost government influence over a Congress holding back on the laws needed to coax from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a few billion dollars which this wealthy country apparently cannot earn for itself. Yet there is every reason to fear that with these latest Cabinet changes Duhalde will alarm the establishment even further while gaining little ground in Congress, trade union circles or anywhere. Since Cabinet Chief Alfredo Atanasof, Interior Minister Jorge Matzkin and (Labour Minister Graciela) Camaño have 32 years in Congress between them, Duhalde might imagine himself closer to the heart of Congress but he is only more its hostage--the rise of trade unionists only brings him nearer to wage-push inflation. In short, the kind of step forward which can send him over the cliff. 2. As to the unions, a dissident faction of the CGT has already called a one-day strike and mobilization for May 14, reports La Nacion. The action was approved unanimously at a congress of the militant faction (fracción combativa) of the CGT.In the meeting, which met in a climate of open opposition to the Duhalde administration, the CGT rebels ratified their refusal to accept Argentina's "submission" to the demands of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The congress decided moreover "to reject" the 14-point accord signed by the president and the provincial governors for betraying "an undignified and irresponsible attitude that compromises the future of the country." En el cónclave, que sesionó en un clima de abierta oposición a la administración duhaldista, la CGT rebelde ratificó el rechazo que hace al "sometimiento" de la Argentina a las exigencias del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). El Congreso dispuso además "rechazar" el acuerdo de 14 puntos firmados por el presidente y los gobernadores provinciales por tratarse de "una actitud indigna e irresponsable que compromete el futuro del país." The demonstration will include a march on the Plaza de Mayo, site of demonstrations that toppled Duhalde's immediate predecessors Fernando de la Rúa and Adolfo Rodríguez Saá.
3. Duhalde's new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna, is in a public spat with the consumer and competition secretary (secretario de Defensa de la Competencia y del Consumidor) Pablo Challú, reports Télam. It matters for two reasons--Lavagna's important and the subject over which the two are battling is important. Lavagna provided the Duhalde government with needed credibility, when he was appointed to replace Jorge Remes Lenicov. He still does, and will, so long as his own credibility isn't sucessfully assaulted by secondary figures. What the two ministers are fighting over is price controls; Challú's for them, Lavagna opposed. Lavagna has apparently suggested Challú resign:Asked if Lavagna had in effect asked for his resignatio Challún indicated that "we had a conversation along these lines." Consultado sobre si efectivamente Lavagna le pidió la renuncia, Challú señaló que "tuvimos una conversación en ese sentido." But, Challú told Télam, he was appointed by the president and would only resign at his request.
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COLOMBIA
Non-terrorists kill 100+: The Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), which the European Union just this week declined to label as "terrorist" killed more than 100 people at Bojayá, report El Espectador (Bogata) and El Pais (Cali).
The EU's decision to deny the obvious truth about the FARC was noted in El Sur yesterday.
The victims were among hundreds of people attending a religious ceremony in the central square of Bojayá, which is in the department of Chocó, when a tank of gas stuffed with dynamite was detonated."The information that we have is that all were civilians," indicated the official (Jorge Caicedo, secretary of the government of Chocó) and added that thirteen of those injuries were grave and that the injured ought to be transferred to more advanced medical centers. "La información que tenemos es que todos son civiles," señaló el funcionario y añadió que trece de los heridos son graves y que los lesionados deben ser trasladados a centros médicos más avanzados. "The situation is very critical. We have made a call to the national government to ask them to please give us a hand in this situation. We need humanitarian help," affirmed Caicedo. "La situación es bastante crítica. Hacemos un llamado al Gobierno nacional para que por favor nos den la mano frente a esta situación. Necesitamos ayuda humanitaria", afirmó Caicedo.
Possibly the European Union might lend a hand.
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CHILE
Unemployment concern: Unemployment is a growing concern in Chile, reports the Chilean business paper Estrategia. Economists project that the rate, currently at 8.8 per cent for the January-March quarter, could reach 9.8 per cent by the end of August. Year-to-year comparisons look a bit better than the more recent record. In addition, the problem appears not to be so much one of fewer jobs as one of more workers, though jobs have indeed been lost.While, in relation to the same period of 2001, the number of people working increased by 2.2 per cent (115,990 people). Thus, it was the increase in 12 months of the work force by 2.1 per cent (123,500) that explained the continuation of unemployment at elevated levels. Mientras, en relación a igual lapso de 2001, la cantidad de personas ocupadas aumentó en 2,2% (115.990 personas). Así, fue el avance en doce meses de la fuerza de trabajo en 2,1% (123.500) el que explicó la mantención de la desocupación en niveles elevados. La Tercera notes other projections suggesting double-digit unemployment later in the year.Last year the government intended to brake without success the rising trajectory of the unemployment rate in the months of winter with an injection of about 155,000 emergency employment posts. This year, the effort will be at similar levels (some 160,000), but the focus will be different: prioritized will be the subsidy of the hiring of manpower, where the private sector will be an important participant in the creation of jobs. El año pasado el gobierno intentó frenar sin éxito la trayectoria alcista de la tasa de desempleo en los meses de invierno con la inyección de alrededor de 155 mil empleos de emergencia. Este año, el esfuerzo será de niveles similares (unos 160 mil), pero la orientación será distinta: se priorizará el subsidio a la contratación de mano de obra, donde el sector privado será un actor más importante en la creación de empleo. Chile is the success story for "neo-liberal" policies in Latin America. Its successes and its problems both have huge implications for Latin American development.
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ARGENTINA
Deterioration: An item from Bloomberg shows the country's continued economic decline. April tax revenue fell 18.5 per cent from a year earlier. The week-long "bank holiday" was one factor.
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Thursday, May 02, 2002
VENEZUELA
Carmona testifies: Pedro Carmona Estanga, Venezuela's interim president during the brief departure from power of Hugo Chávez, testified before the National Assembly commission that is investigating the events of April 11-13. Carmona's testimony is reported in El Universal."I did not conspire, there was no coup, there was no rebellion." "No conspiré, no hubo golpe, no hubo rebelión." Carmona insisted that what was produced was a "power vacuum" after the inspector general of the national armed forces, general Lucas Rincón Romero, indicated publicly to the country that the high command had solicited the resignation of the President Hugo Chávez and that the leader had accepted. Carmona sostuvo que lo que se produjo fue un ''vacío de poder'' luego de que el inspector general de la Fuerza Armada Armada Nacional, general en jefe Lucas Rincón Romero, señalara públicamente al país que el Alto Mando había solicitado la renuncia del presidente Hugo Chávez y que el mandatario la había aceptado. "The authorities abandoned office before the announcement of the resignation of the President," he indicated. "I have been an opponent, but a conspirator never," he insisted. "Never was the resignation of the president in my hands," I accepted much later. ''Las autoridades abandonaron el poder ante el anuncio de la renuncia del Presidente,'' indicó. ''He sido opositor, pero conspirador nunca,'' insistió. "Nunca tuve la renuncia del presidente en mis manos," aceptó más tarde. Carmona did not reveal the identity of the person that called him the early morning of the 12th of April to ask him to assume the interim presidency in the absence of the president nor who granted the office in the meeting that was held with the general staff of the armed forces at the army command and that preceeded the pronouncement that was made at five in the morning the same day. Carmona no reveló la identidad de la persona que le llamó la madrugada del 12 de abril para pedirle que asumiera la presidencia interina ante la ausencia del presidente ni quien le otorgó el cargo en la reunión que sostuvo con el el generalato de la Fuerza Armada en la Comandancia del Ejército y que precedió el pronunciamiento que hiciera a las cinco de la mañana de ese mismo día. Carmono always spoke instead of a "collective" of persons, El Universal reports. Carmona would also not reveal the author of the decree of the interim government that, among other things, dissolved the National Assembly and most of the country's other political offices, and was much criticized for it. He also denied having contact with the previous president, Carlos Andrés Pérez, who is in exile in the Dominican Republic. Finally,Carmona rejected completely any the participation of foreign groups or governments in the events of the 11th of April. He said that he did not receive demonstrations of support from foreign governments, as these "were evaluating the situation," before pronouncing themselves on it. Carmona negó de forma Carmona negó de forma sistemática la participación de grupos o gobierno extranjeros en los sucesos del 11 de abril. Dijo que no recibió manifestaciones de apoyo de gobiernos extranjeros, pues estos "estaban evaluando la situación" antes de pronunciarse.
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EUROPE AND LATIN AMERICA
No enemies to the left: The European Union has inserted itself into Colombia's guerilla war, reports El Tiempo, on the side of the guerillas. Putting together its list of terrorist organizations, the EU chose not to include the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), despite the fact that FARC is the aggressor, and uses kidnapping (including of a presidential candidate), bombing (including of a presidential candidate) and assassination as everyday tactics. The EU did include the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC), which was formed in response to the depredations of the FARC. The EU did leave open the possibility of declaring the FARC to be a terrorist organization at a later date. Right.
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VENEZUELA
Taped! El Nacional and El Universal both give accounts of a video tape of Hugo Chávez while in custody on April 13. The tape was obtained and broadcast by Globovisión.
On the tape:
1. Chávez acknowledges activating Plan Avila, a plan to defend the presidential palace against popular insurrection with troops and armor. This practice has been very controversial since the military fired on demonstrators during street protests in 1989. But, he says, his military chiefs were very reluctant to activate the plan. From El Universal:I ordered Plan Avila in the morning. I ordered (General Manuel) Rosendo and he hid from me. I told (General) Lucas (Rincón) and he told me: one must think about it. One must think about what?, I said to him." "Yo ordené en la mañana el Plan Avila. Le ordené a Rosendo y se me escondió. Se lo dije a Lucas y me dijo: hay que pensarlo. ¿Hay que pensar qué?, le dije" The opposition has repeatedly cited the activation of Plan Avila as evidence that Chávez planned a violent crack down on the opposition's April 11 demonstration.
2. Chávez justifies ordering Plan Avila, because, as he sees it, the demonstration is cover for a coup. From El Nacional:"I have the authority to do it, when I was informed by the intelligence agencies of the armed forces and the DISIP (police intelligence) of the plan of insurrection that was in progress... ?Yo tengo potestad para hacerlo, cuando me enteré por órganos de inteligencia de la misma Fuerza Armada y de la Disip, el plan de insurrección que estaba en marcha... 3. Chávez discusses what will happen and where he will go, possibly to Cuba. From El Nacional:The colonel explains to him what he must do and gives assurances that he will be taken overseas, to which Chávez responds: "I have a fear...I, if I am going to Cuba or where I decide, for security. Cuba would be a possibility. Here many people have not understood that no longer am I (thinking about) myself, it is (about) the people. I proposed this night, decided it and the general (Raúl) Baduell told me "you did not give yourself up," and all the leadership betrayed me. Cowards and traitors!" El coronel le explica lo que tiene que hacer y después asegura que lo llevarán al exterior a lo que Chávez responde: ?Tengo un temor...yo sí me voy a Cuba o a donde yo decida, por seguridad Cuba sería una posibilidad. Aquí mucha gente no ha entendido que ya no soy yo, es el pueblo. Yo propuse esa noche, lo decidí y el general Baduell me dijo ?no te rindas? y todo el Alto Mando me traicionó. ¡Cobardes y desleales!? 4. Chávez has maintained that at no point did he resign. Conversation caught on this tape backs him up. From El Nacional's summary: One time the colonel reiterated to Chávez what he would have to do, the chief of state answered that he could refuse to obey, since it is clear, he would continue being the constitutional president. "Just leave me here seated. I am going to meditate, and good, if I am imprisoned, it's OK. I stay imprisoned here but I am not obligated to go away..." Una vez que el coronel le repitió a Chávez lo que debía hacer, el jefe de Estado le respondió que podría haberse negado a obedecerlo, pues según deja en claro, seguía siendo el Presidente constitucionalmente.
?Sencillamente déjame aquí sentado. Voy a meditar, y bueno, si estoy preso; está bien. Yo sigo preso aquí y no estoy obligado a irme..." Please excuse the translation. It is of a summary of a tape of conversations.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2002
ARGENTINA
Duhalde denies he will resign: La Nacion and Clarin both report that Duhalde is upset at criticism from some leaders of his Peronist party "who explain on television 'how in four days they did big things,' but 'bolted like rats when the Argentine situation pressured them'" ("quienes explican por televisión 'cómo en cuatro días hicieron grandes cosas' pero 'dispararon como ratas cuando la situación argentina los apremió.'" He added that he will not resign"I will not abandon Argentina in the same way that I would not abandon a child of mine that has problems. No abandonaré a la Argentina de la misma manera que no abandonaría a un hijo mío que tiene problemas. Duhalde spoke at a union May Day event. The papers said his comments were in response to remarks made by his immediate predecessor, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, who left office after two weeks amidst violent demonstrations (which some allege were part of what amounted to a coup).
Need it be said: Anyone who finds it necessary to reject the idea resigning, is either considering resigning or believes others are considering it for him. Otherwise, why would the idea even cross his mind?
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VENEZUELA
Rival demonstrations big and peaceful: Competing May Day demonstrations have been organized by the pro-Chávez Bolivarian Workers Front (Frente Bolivariano de Trabajadores) and the opposition Venezuelan Workers Confederation (Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela). According to the commissioner of the metropolitan police, Henry Vivas, "as of this moment all is developing without any kind of problem..." ("hasta el momento todo se está desarrollando sin ningún tipo de problema..." reports El Nacional.
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VENEZUELA
Unreconciled and absent: Returning to power, Hugo Chávez promised a kinder, gentler government. For one thing, he created a presidential commission to promote and coordinate a national dialogue. Not everyone invited has been willing to participate, reports El Nacional.Among the 40 members that compose the commission, in the Salón Ayacucho of the Miraflores Palace, there were not leaders of Fedecámaras (the business organization whose president served as interim president) the CTV (national labor union), political parties nor communications media directors. Entre los 40 miembros que integran la comisión, en el Salón Ayacucho del palacio de Miraflores no estuvieron los dirigentes de Fedecámaras, la CTV, los partidos políticos ni directivos de los medios de comunicación. Speaking for a few minutes at the opening session, Chávez expressed his displeasure at the absences, reports El Universal.The chief of government denounced those sectors of the opposition that reject the national dialogue and don't stop insisting on a unconstitutional end. "There are disturbing elements. They are actors that are capable of thinking of insisting on an extra constitutional ending." El jefe del Gobierno denunció que sectores de la oposición se niegan al diálogo nacional y no dejan de insistir en una salida inconstitucional. "Hay factores de perturbación. Son actores que podrían estar pensando en insistir en una salida extraconstitucional." Although Chávez has called for reconciliation and dialogue and has made a few gestures in this direction--including this commission--there is little evidence that he plans to modify his statist, populist policies in any significant way. Unconvinced of his sincerity, the opposition is unwilling to lend credibility to feel-good events that serve mainly to rehabilitate Chávez. They clearly prefer to test their strength on the streets today, instead. And in Venezuela's current situation, head counts from the street are more important than talking heads in Miraflores.
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VENEZUELA
Competing marches: Opposition to President Hugo Chávez will be publicly tested for the first time since the failed coup of April 11-14. The measure of the opposition's strength will be the turnout at today's May Day march, called by the national labor union, the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV), reports Bloomberg.Chavez's opponents called on Venezuelans to join the traditional May Day march by the country's largest labor organization as a protest against Chavez and his government's policies. The government is also organizing a march and rally that will pass just blocks away from the route of its rival. Leaders at the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, who say they represent 1 million workers, expect at least 100,000 people onto the streets Many civic groups opposed to Chavez are expected to participate, with leaders calling on their followers to wear black armbands in memory of 12 protesters who were killed in the April 11 protest march that preceded the coup. The march followed a nationwide strike spearheaded by the CTV.
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ARGENTINA
Rural view: Agricultural organizations suspended a week-long strike, planned for this week, ostensibly out of respect for the country's new economy minister, Roberto Lavagna. But they are not happy, reports the AgReport website for April 26. The site quotes the Argentine Rural Society (SRA), as follows:The legal system in general and democracy in particular are violated. The elemental principles of a pacific and civilized coexistence are sacrificed day to day. Private property is no longer respected and is increasingly desecrated. Personal security experiments a progressive deterioration. Acquired rights and legal guarantees are constantly dishonored. The National Constitution is dead. Taxes are increasingly confiscatory. Anarchy demolishes the social order. The waste of limited public resources is an insult to intelligence. Political ethics are lacking. Legal arbitrariness multiplies our doubts and worsens our uncertainties.
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ARGENTINA
Optimism Returns: The Argentine press has taken on an optimistic tone this week. The crisis, they seem to think, is over.
La Razon, for example, headlines one story: "New signals of support come from the United States," and "Washintgon again praises the transition of the Duhalde government and reasserts its predisposition to help." ("Llegan nuevas señales de apoyo desde EE.UU."and"Washington volvió a elogiar los últimos pasos del gobierno de Duhalde y ratificó su predisposición a ayudar.") The story reports U.S. Treasure Secretary Paul O'Neill's comments on Argentina last night on NBC.
La Nacion, meanwhile, seems almost celebratory, headlining one item: "The dollar closes below $3. ("El dólar cerró por debajo de los $ 3.) Never mind the fact that this is a third of what the peso was worth at the beginning of the year.
In fact, the situation last week was not as bad as it looked. And the situation this week is not as good as the local press seems to believe.
Last week's crisis was touched off when Jorge Remes Lenicov finally burned out. First Duhalde rejected his plan to slow the bleeding of deposits from banks by requiring savers to negotiate the entire appeals process before banks could be forced to honor court-ordered withdrawls. (See El Sur.) Then Duhalde's substitute Bonex plan--converting savings to bonds--was rejected by national legislature. This, combined with the refusal of Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia to inject new money into its Argentine subsidiary, forced the government to close the banks for a week. (See El Sur and El Sur.) At about the same time, Duhalde began talking about re-establishing a fixed exchange rate. Finally, Remes Lenicov heard nothing but complaint about all this from the IMF and the USA, he resigned. (See El Sur.)
Remes Lenicov's resignation touched off the crisis. Duhalde met with legislators and Peronist state governors to come up with a plan and interviewed several candidates for to replace Remes Lenicov, finally selecting Roberto Lavagna. (See El Sur.) Lavagna promptly, recommended--and Duhalde promptly accepted--essentially the measures proposed by Remes Lenicov and that led to his resignation when they were not accepted. (See El Sur.)
In short, Argentina is back where it was two weeks ago, before the crisis blew up. The only change for the better is that Argentina now has economy minister with fresh energy. The country is still out of money and still counting on a foreign bailout.
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